Is there a recession scheduled for 2025?

[Doodoo]

"A recession is defined as a significant decline in economic activity that lasts longer than a few months. It is characterized by a decrease in production, employment, and consumer spending. In the United States, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is responsible for officially announcing the start and end of a recession."

More and more businesses are closing the States. Is this an indicator of what's to come?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRIXQOJTcOA
No harm in having a listen


https://www.msn.com/en-ca/foodanddrink/ ... fdc1&ei=10

[Doodoo]

Verizon set to cut about 15,000 jobs, convert some stores to franchises

More on the way

[Mosquito]

Some Job Numbers for you.

First. White House says October jobs and inflation data may never be released because of the shutdown.
*How bad could the data be?? So, much for an open and honest govt.

Went back 8 years, no negative Oct job numbers. Lowest Oct job number was +12k in 2024, Highest Oct job number was +638k in 2020.

Checked Sep 2025 jobs report, +22k jobs.....Sep 2024 jobs report, +254k.

Now getting back to how bad the data could be, reports indicate a -50k to 60k job loss in Oct 2025.
* Can't say the reports are credible. However, just seeing the number of corporate lay-offs it could be!!!

Being a betting man, I'd give the odds of a prolonged recession in 2026 better than 70/30 odds.
* Economist have the odds of a recession in 2026 at 40/60.

[Doodoo]

https://www.facebook.com/reel/2103679593703779
Hotel Sonder that is or was backed by Marriott is gone

[pipoz4444]

"Is there a recession scheduled for 2025". Well I suppose it depends on where you are.

If you are in a Country that has a product that the world demands, year on year out, such as that needed for energy, then the answer will in all probability be "No", not in 2025.

If your are in the USA, I would guess No, not in 2025 anyway. But that is just my guess.

If you are in the UK or Australia or New Zealand, I would say, you have a 50/50 chance of a recession there, before the end 2025, for a number of other reasons. But that is just my guess

Just my 2 cents worth for Asia

Not in 2025, but it will be hard on some Asian Countries, and several will slow down significantly in Year 2026

Thailand is in for some more pain, as is Indonesia.

Thailand will struggle, as long as the Baht is strong, exports will be more expensive to other, and tourist will go elsewhere searching for, better value for money. Thai economy will stagnate to a degree with an estimated GDP Growth of less than 1.5%. As an economy it just doesn't have the answers to competing with Vietnam, either in Industry or in Tourism. Thailand's GDP is still above that of Vietnam, but not for too much longer.

Indonesia will struggle less than Thailand, as its populous is somewhat unstable or even unpredictable. The Country has some real inflation problems and a lack of employment opportunity, with low or stagnated salaries, knowing a some people who live there. Also very little external Investment coming in. I will hazard a guess and say Indonesia's GDP Growth in 2026 will be less than 3.0%

Cambodia's economy will move forward but at a relatively slow / even pace. It has a low base to come from, so GDP growth percentage, doesn't really indicate much. It still has an LDC status. Its GDP is one Tenth of that of Vietnam. Some predict 5.0% growth, my view is that GDP Growth will be under 4.0% in Year 2026.

Vietnam's economy is somewhat immune at present and it will be full steam ahead, continuing its honeymoon period for all of next year. It will become much more expensive to *retire in Vietnam and GDP Growth is likely to be above 6.0% in Year 2026.

Will see how close I am at the end of 2026

[Mosquito]

For History Buffs:

"The most recent US recession was a very short one in February 2020, during the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. The president at that time was Donald Trump. The recession that preceded this was the "Great Recession," which lasted from December 2007 to June 2009 and occurred when George W. Bush was president, with Barack Obama taking office as the recession was ending."
* Official Declaration of the Pandemic was in March 2020.

Great Depression:
Herbert Hoover, a member of the Republican Party, he served as the third United States secretary of commerce from 1921 to 1928 before being elected president in 1928. His presidency was dominated by the Great Depression, and his policies and methods to combat it were seen as lackluster.

While.....
The last time the US had a balanced budget was in fiscal year 2001, during President Bill Clinton 's final year in office. The federal government ran a budget surplus for the fiscal years 1998 through 2001.
*** Proof that a blowjob in the Oval Office (by someone other than your wife) will help a man clear his thoughts.

[Doodoo]

A glimmer of hope in Thailand. There have been 86 airlines bidding for flight slots here in Thailand This would indicate an increase in passenger traffic for the country in 2026