US Presidential election odds

[Potamoi]

I won't be voting this election. I would be ashamed to vote for Biden or Trump. The only other option would be RFK and he is insane. Dirty corruption in politics is now the norm and the country is suffering from it.

This is the first election I WILL vote in. Your opinion of RFK Jr. is yours. I have my own opinion as well and feel RFK Jr. is the only 'sane' one there. Running mate, Nicole Shanahan, just announced and I think she is a good choice. She is not a politician either which fits my world just fine. Smart, compationate and a leader even though she isn't a pro public speaker yet.

So far, I like what I hear from her (she starts speaking around the 33:00 mark):



https://youtu.be/spSWLsckUq0?t=2010

The DNC and RNC are trying their best to slander RFK Jr. so now we will see them do the same with Shanahan in the MSM. The DNC and Biden admin are doing their level best to keep RFK Jr off the ballots in many states which is about as low as it gets in the political dirty tricks bag. They understand he (they) are a real threat to their own lame campaigns.

I reckon we owe it to ourselves (those that have a pathway to vote anyway) to actually look at the candidates carefully, listen to them actually speak instead of listening to what a talking head summarizes for us. We can do this without the MSM bias and curated content Facebook and other social media outlets have shoved down our throats as well.

I'm in. "Vote out of hope rather than out of fear"

[Whistler]

JFK Jnr would be the type of candidate that would be OK under a preferential voting system, he has zero chance to win any collegiate contests, but lacking a preferencial voting system, it is pretty much a wasted vote.

Last election there were 240M registered voters, only 66% actually voted, Biden was elected with around 30% of the eligible voters casting a ballot for him. Pretty crazy Eh? However, JFK Jnr is polling around 8%, voter turnout will almost certainly be lower this election, so that means the President after November 5 may get as little as 25% of the eligible voters ballots.

Trump claims that 2020 was stolen, really? Less than 30% of voters cast a ballot for him.

Is it just me, or is something amiss here in what is oftern described as the worlds leading democracy.?

[Udon Map]

The DNC and Biden admin are doing their level best to keep RFK Jr off the ballots in many states which is about as low as it gets in the political dirty tricks bag.

I see it very differently. There are rules and laws governing access to the ballot. IMO nothing wrong with challenging candidates to see if they meet the requirements and have complied. If they have, then they'll be on the ballot. If they haven't, they won't. Very simple.

[Laan Yaa Mo]

A few thoughts from Hollywood and one or two real life U.S. politicians have been rattling around my brain this morning. To illustrate, Trump reminds me a lot of that Huey Long (Governor of Louisiana) character played by Broderick Crawford in 'All an individual's Men' (1949). He also has a touch of Lonesome Rhodes (played by Andy Griffith) an Arkansas drifter turned singer/politician in the 1957 movie, 'A Face in the Crowd'. Hollywood also gave us Burt Lancaster a charismatic, 'say anything and people will believe it', character in 'Elmer Gantry (1960)'.

Strom Thurmond was a South Carolina Governor and Representative who seemed to embody the hopes and beliefs of his constituents in a way that Trump commands support no matter what. On the other hand, Thurman was a competent and savvy politician who kept his dark secrets private. Maybe Richard Daly, the former corrupt Chicago Mayor and Democratic Party fixer, would be a better choice.

[Whistler]

Almost impossible to find an actor to.play a doco on Trump, we need a clone

Ben Stiller - The secret life of Walter Mitty
Jim Carey - Liar liar
George Michael - hair
Arnold Swartzenegger - I'll be back
Fabio - I am the most beautiful man in the world
Al Capone - Raceteer and career criminal
Adolph Hitler - but ditch the mustache

[Udon Map]

Strom Thurmond was a South Carolina Governor and Representative . . . .

U.S. Senator.

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Thanks. I trust he was a fan of the Gamecocks.

[Laan Yaa Mo]

Thanks. I trust he was a fan of the Gamecocks.

Whoops! Goofed again. He attended Clemson College, thus he probably supported the Tigers.

[Whistler]

This was posted by Donald Trump on his Truth Social pltform. It is an other graphic display (no pun intended) of the truly awful deteriorisation of any sense of decency that exists in US politics, an incitement for violence that would not be tolerated in any other Western nation, in fact it would be illegal in many.

How anybody could support this man is beyond me, he is beneath contempt. Bear in mind, there are enough niaive people who act on memes and misinformation and Trump knows this and cycnically will do anything to further his cause.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-amer ... 5fgca.html

the image is behind a paywall, but opening up an incognito windows will display it.

[Whistler]

March 31.

There was a substantial swing to Biden almost across the board in March.

In the swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, the swing has seen Biden take the lead in some polls and gain a lot of ground in others, these swing states are too close to call. In North Carolina where Trump had a double digit lead, it has been halved, Florida remains Trumps but his lead had shrunk.

If the election was called today, it would be much too close to call. The overall lead on the popular vote is now less than 1% for Trump, but the swing states have certainly swung back towards the Biden. There is still a very large uncommitted set of voters in every state.

[samster]

March 31.

There was a substantial swing to Biden almost across the board in March.

In the swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, the swing has seen Biden take the lead in some polls and gain a lot of ground in others, these swing states are too close to call.

Coded message? I'm not that way inclined but, my neighbours have some pampas grass in their front garden.

[Whistler]

Sam, to cryptic for ne, what do you mean?

[jackspratt]

If you were wondering about RFK Jr's state of mind, just ponder this:

RFK Jr. calls Biden bigger threat to democracy than Trump over deleted anti-vaccine posts

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. reiterated his argument Tuesday that President Biden poses a greater threat to democracy than former President Trump......

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/02/rfk-jr ... cial-media

[Whistler]

If you were wondering about RFK Jr's state of mind, just ponder this:

RFK Jr. calls Biden bigger threat to democracy than Trump over deleted anti-vaccine posts

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. reiterated his argument Tuesday that President Biden poses a greater threat to democracy than former President Trump......

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/02/rfk-jr ... cial-media

The biggest threat to American democracy is the brain dead American voters that sadly seems to be a huge percentage of voters. I cannot understand how monumentally dumb the MAGA crowd is, following a deranged narcassist like Trump who considers them as useful idiots, but frankly, I suspect, is not smart enough, to understand the magnitude of his following.

Christian nationalists are no different to Islamic fundamentalists, they just live in a richer, more influential country, but are just as deranged

[noosard]

If you are or were brain dead surely you are not a threat to anything

[Potamoi]

If you were wondering about RFK Jr's state of mind, just ponder this:

RFK Jr. calls Biden bigger threat to democracy than Trump over deleted anti-vaccine posts

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. reiterated his argument Tuesday that President Biden poses a greater threat to democracy than former President Trump......

https://www.axios.com/2024/04/02/rfk-jr ... cial-media

Meh, bit of a nothing-burger sound bite, me thinks. CNN love to edit bites to push their narrative. Funny that so many fall for it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9FkAi1VV4k


The current state of affairs regarding censorship and how the US government is attempting to manage the social and main stream media to adhere to the current propaganda is certainly a disturbing trend. Not sure which is worse, allowing billionaires to push their story of the day or governments. Either way, Tulsi and RFK Jr. seem to have their stances firmly in the 1st amendment rights corner.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election ... democracy/

https://www.newsnationnow.com/cuomo-sho ... democracy/

I reckon if Tulsi goes with Trump, we will see Trump win for sure. I really hoped she would go with RFK Jr. but IMHO she will likely be the first female the US president in 2028 election no matter outcome this year.

[jackspratt]

Meh, bit of a nothing-burger sound bite, me thinks.

Amongst all the others.

At what point do his numerous "nothing-burgers" add up to a substantive "should-we-be-worried - burger"?

[Whistler]

Tulsi has swung all over the place in her political career, she stands for nothing. This statement was hilarious

'Gabbard is also slated to be at the former president’s Mar-a-Lago resort next week, where she will headline a fundraiser for the 917 Society during a night “celebrating the Constitution,” according to an invitation shared exclusively with The Hill'.

Celebrating a Constitution that Trump wants to suspend. 55

[jackspratt]

This sums up perfectly how I believe Phelonious Rump will fare, come November.

But despite the rise of the far right, it seems to me Trump cannot win: He is now not only convicted felon, he has demographics against him.

Between the 2016 election and this year’s, about 18 million people over the age of 60 in the United States will have died and 30 million or so young Americans – Generation Z – will reach voting age. The issues that they care about – in particular climate change and reproductive rights – are mostly owned by the Democrats.

As Reed Galen, one of the founders of The Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump Republican campaign outfit, wrote recently: “The Republican Party is on the wrong side of every major issue facing the American people.”

And it’s not as if Trump has a winning record. In 2016 when he won the electoral college, he lost the popular vote by 2.8 million votes, the largest margin of any US president in history. In the 2018 midterms, the Democrats easily beat the Republicans, in 2020 Trump narrowly lost the electoral college but lost the popular vote in a landslide, and in the 2022 midterms, Trump’s chosen candidates were routed across the country.

https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/ ... 1&lr_hash=

[Whistler]

The conviction has galvanised the already committed MAGA cult members, I doubt if it will swing others to his cause.

On the flip side, anecdotal evidence looks like other erstwhile luke warm Trump voters, and Libertarians will either vote for somebody else or not vote at all.

I suspect by end of June, Biden will have at least a 2 point lead and a bump for Kennedy.

A dead cat bounce is unlikely