US Presidential election odds

[mickojak]

If Trumps does lose, he will thank his team and the American people that supported him.
Not like ol' sour puss

[Drunk Monkey]

Yes the Dems were such graceful loosers after the last election and DTs demolition job on them .. the which hunt and onslaught of hate from certain media outlets and Pelosi and Co to hamper any thing Trump wanted to do really was very nice .. didnt they take defeat well NOT ..for the good of the country NOT

Pelosi and Bercow should hook up together .. make aloverly couple.

say it again .. dam shameful that Trump n Biden are the best on offer ..

DM

[tamada]

^^ Trump... magnanimous in defeat.

Then I woke up.

[mickojak]

by tamada » May 27, 2020, 10:48 am

^^ Trump... magnanimous in defeat.

Then I woke up

Better go back to sleep for 4 1/2 years then,

55

[Chuchi]

Yes the Dems were such graceful loosers after the last election and DTs demolition job on them .. the which hunt and onslaught of hate from certain media outlets and Pelosi and Co to hamper any thing Trump wanted to do really was very nice .. didnt they take defeat well NOT ..for the good of the country NOT

Pelosi and Bercow should hook up together .. make aloverly couple.

say it again .. dam shameful that Trump n Biden are the best on offer ..

DM

Don't forget DM Hilary's sitting on a rooftop somewhere waiting for an opportunity like Jason Bourne .

[Drunk Monkey]

Dont mention Hillary .. shes waiting in the wings for sure .. Joey boy Biden wants to check his burger for broken glass and lock all the doors ..TWICE or the Clintons will be mourning the loss of a true friend who slipped on the soap and banged his head in the shower.

DM

[mickojak]

Hilary's sitting on a rooftop somewhere waiting for an opportunity like Jason Bourne

Seeing her do some of Jason's stunts?
That "would" be entertaining.

[mickojak]

[cjd01]

Hey Whistler
got an article from the very conservative Politico
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/2 ... ats-281470

[tamada]

It is plus four years on and it's a hoot to see that Republicans in general and Donny John in particular are STILL running scared of the old(er) woman and her sleepy, geriatric bawbag. The white-knuckled, tenuous nature of their 'control' is only surpassed by their terribly fragile egos.

[Whistler]

Hey Whistler
got an article from the very conservative Politico
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/2 ... ats-281470

Good article CJ and I would not discount what they have to say, hope they are correct for everybody's sake.

However, this is a Globalised event.

Unlike a natural disaster, this downturn is not localised, it's like scores of ferocious hurricanes hitting every country in the world at the same time, plainly not the case.

Natural disasters are normally short and sharp, Hurrican's last for a few days, not several months. The only sustained natural disaster I can think of is the Christchurch earthquakes, they went on for well over a year. That happened more than nine years ago and the city is yet to recover. As COVID is hitting every city in the world, that experience is likely to be duplicated on a global scale. The conventional view of the impact by economists is more likely to be accurate.

If you go back to the 9/11 bombing. I believe a large percentage of business in the World Trade Centre never recovered and went out of business. Lets now put that on a global scale. We are seeing businesses, especially highly leveraged businesses going Chapter 11 or 13, a lot of these will cease to exist forever, no recovery for them. Almost all other businesses have laid of staff, recovery in employment looks like being very slow.

Governments have only one strategy to pay for this, quantitative easing, printing money, selling bonds, borrowing. All long term debts that will have to be repaid. The USA already has a massive debt problem, sooner or later somebody will have to pay.

I don't see this as a Conservative v's Progressive argument, its a massive problem that either side has to deal with on an ongoing basis.

[Whistler]

Interesting, the guy has done 180 degree turnaround in 5 or 6 weeks. Something does not add up

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/13/21177850/ ... s-stimulus

[cjd01]

Interesting, the guy has done 180 degree turnaround in 5 or 6 weeks. Something does not add up

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/13/21177850/ ... s-stimulus

Sorry for late reply, the boss needed help to go sell the cash crop, not drugs mangoes anyway your correct all these so called experts like to have 50 cents each way
a lot of these "experts" are now saying the lock down was a mistake and it would have been better just to react as with previous "pandemics"
I'm sure you'll disagree with me but I can't understand how locking up the healthy and ruining the worlds economy was the best solution, my point really is can we continue to do this, as sure as Tim Tam is a ***** there's another disaster just around the corner. We had better get used to being locked inside and definitely no social interaction.
Ok waiting for disdain but please no man on man sex remarks.

[mickojak]

Yes,
Hindsight is wonderful, but early on, they new that the young and middle aged were very unlikely to die, so they probably should have just quarantined the kids and older people.

I'm actually surprised that they have not reverted to this at present.
Would have kept a lot of society moving along.
Mick

[cjd01]

Hey Mick
probably not the correct thread but interesting figures unfortunately only US data
but food for thought
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ographics/

[Whistler]

Interesting, the guy has done 180 degree turnaround in 5 or 6 weeks. Something does not add up

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/13/21177850/ ... s-stimulus

Sorry for late reply, the boss needed help to go sell the cash crop, not drugs mangoes anyway your correct all these so called experts like to have 50 cents each way
a lot of these "experts" are now saying the lock down was a mistake and it would have been better just to react as with previous "pandemics"
I'm sure you'll disagree with me but I can't understand how locking up the healthy and ruining the worlds economy was the best solution, my point really is can we continue to do this, as sure as Tim Tam is a ***** there's another disaster just around the corner. We had better get used to being locked inside and definitely no social interaction.
Ok waiting for disdain but please no man on man sex remarks.

The Japanese have a philosophy called Kaizen, continuous improvement.

First up, a general lockdown made sense, it saved lives and gave us thinking time, but we have not used this time much to improve. Phase two could have included mountains of testing to identify hotspots and have multiple rules based on risk.

High risk, lots of activity
Medium risk, still there, but not out of control
Low risk like Udon, be alert, but open up a bit

Having one set of rules for the whole of Thailand, or Australia or the USA is not refining the approach, just a crude one-size-fit-all stifling strategy. High risk is bordering provinces with Malaysia, but Udon is totally different, no new infections for several weeks. Having a single policy for the whole country makes no sense.

Ditto, USA. comparing New York to Montana where there is 150:1 differential in the spread, so having a policy that covers Manhattan and Great Falls is ridiculous.

I would like to see the Kaizen approach to replace the brute force approach and get the economy started again.

[Khun Paul]

See the Man-child is losing the plot threatening everyone including Twitter as well as continually accusing an innocent man of Murder. Something not quite right with him , now he appears to be terrified of NOT be re-elected.

[Whistler]

See the Man-child is losing the plot threatening everyone including Twitter as well as continually accusing an innocent man of Murder. Something not quite right with him , now he appears to be terrified of NOT be re-elected.

KP,

I reckon the White House shredding machine will be working 24/7 towards the end of the year, but you can't hid everything.

[Whistler]

cjd,

Seems that The New York Times read my response

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/27/opin ... e=Homepage

[tamada]

Kaizen is maybe why so much Japanese investment in Thailand has endured the ups and downs of the unique form of democracy here. It has probably rubbed off on some but not all locally-grown businesses as well. Notably, it hasn't flourished in the corridors of Thai power and most assuredly is an unknown concept to their military.

The incumbent aside, do we see any of the likely US presidential nominees who would run with such a relatively simple construct? Maybe it's more like being allowed to run with it? Are their any individual states that can be identified as Kaizen-friendly?

Has any western government managed to cherry-pick the bits about how to manage society in these corona afflicted times that actually work? The countries that closed their international air and land borders earlier and quarantined everyone inbound appear to have fared far better than others. However, the UK is only going to start quarantining ALL inbound pax next month. This despite a solid 5 weeks or so of most countries reporting new infections coming mostly from new arrivals. Back in February, the US defined certain gateway airports for people coming from China while every other cross-contaminated passengers poured in unchecked through all the other airports. Domestically, it was somehow seen as OK to allow people to get on a plane unchecked in one cluster city airport and fly to another cluster city airport.

Your point about broader testing is key to enabling a multi-layered approach where the likes of Udon isn't lumped in with the likes of Bangkok. Your U.S. cities comparison is valid but doesn't the close proximity to Manhattan of 5 major international airports versus 3 far less busy ones in Montana need to be considered? To allow more freedom of movement anywhere, one needs to be testing more citizens more frequently and tracking their movements. The freedom paradox?

In the U.K., the City-centric approach also prevails while the devolved regions are marching to a slightly different drum. However, this testing solution has been all a bit mercurial if only for the fact that the reliability of these test kits has repeatedly been proven to be below par.

It would be nice to have less controls in Udon (and Montana) but can we trust the respective governments to do their very best to get viable testing in place so that anyone coming from Bangkok (or Manhattan) won't cause a provincial (or state) problem?