US Presidential election odds

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Whistler
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » May 23, 2020, 8:52 pm

jackspratt wrote:
May 23, 2020, 8:12 pm
Whistler wrote:
May 23, 2020, 7:18 pm
I should have added Rudd, a drunken ego maniac with delusions of adequacy
Australia owes Rudd a huge vote of thanks, for ridding the country (and his own electorate) of the pernicious little turd, otherwise known (in his own party) as the "lying rodent".

John Howard - you won't be missed.

Meanwhile back in the US........ :D
Jack,

The rodent lost because the electoral boundaries of Bennelong moved North and included Eastwood which is predominantly Korean (Asian). His documented history of belittling Asians sealed his fate.

Nothing to do with Rudd or McKew. Alexander now holds Bennalong easily, McKew lost to Alexander at the next election.

Later at the by-election contested by blond bimbo Keneally (I was booth captain for labor at Epping Boys polling station) was a disaster, labor then lost the 2019 election. Alexander still holds the seat despite two elections and a by-election as he courts the Asian vote. He is also a good local member who despite his politics, I have a lot of time for.

Howard was an awful PM, he inherited a booming economy thanks to Keating, both predicted and was delighted to see his demise. Only the second PM in history to lose his own seat.


watching in horror

jackspratt
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by jackspratt » May 23, 2020, 10:59 pm

Howard lost in 2007 because Rudd was a credible alternative PM. Everything to do with Rudd.

Just as Morrison (who was equally on the nose as Howard) won last year because Shorten was not a credible alternative - along with some poorly presented policies.

The proverbial Drover's Dog, if wearing a blue tie, will be the Member for Bennelong for ever and a day.

Blond bimbo ...... OK.

Whistler
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » May 24, 2020, 8:16 am

jackspratt wrote:
May 23, 2020, 10:59 pm
Howard lost in 2007 because Rudd was a credible alternative PM. Everything to do with Rudd.

Just as Morrison (who was equally on the nose as Howard) won last year because Shorten was not a credible alternative - along with some poorly presented policies.

The proverbial Drover's Dog, if wearing a blue tie, will be the Member for Bennelong for ever and a day.

Blond bimbo ...... OK.
You are not entirely correct about Bennelong Jack. A booth by booth analysis of Bennelong in 2007 showed Howard only losing a small percentage of the polling centres that remained in the old electoral boundaries, Gladesville, Putney, the various Rydes etc. He got walloped in Eastwood (Korean), Epping (Chinese), almost all of those newly incorporated suburbs had a large Asian component. It was a personal profile that lost him his seat, Rudd was always going to win overall, but Howard lost Bennelong all by himself.

At the by-election, Labor targeted the Asian community with lots of door knocking, street stalls etc. By that time Alexander had cemented his place with the Asian community. These are affluent suburbs, the rich Asians love Alexander.
watching in horror

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Doodoo » May 24, 2020, 8:38 am

I never knew Trump was running for the Labor Party

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tamada
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by tamada » May 24, 2020, 8:46 am

...in Australia no less.
Last edited by tamada on May 24, 2020, 8:49 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Doodoo » May 24, 2020, 8:48 am

I know

Chuchi
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Chuchi » May 24, 2020, 8:50 am

Whistler wasn’t you the OP regarding this thread?

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tamada
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by tamada » May 24, 2020, 8:52 am

Do the Aussies know?

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GT93
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by GT93 » May 24, 2020, 9:05 am

Ease up boys. The Aussie PM is usually nearly as keen as the British PM to kiss the US president's arse. They now have a rival. The new Leader of the Opposition in New Zealand has had a MAGA cap on display in his office for some years. :shock: It'll be interesting to see how quickly that goes.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by noosard » May 24, 2020, 9:39 am

Whistler wrote:
March 11, 2020, 11:32 am
I have long been of the view that betting agents get it right most of the time and have been watching the US Presidential race from that viewpoint. A few months ago, Trump was unbackable at around $1.40 (AUD). Three weeks ago he was at $1.50, then yesterday $1..67, at time of posting he is $1.80 and Biden $2.10.

I will keep this thread up to date every Wednesday for those who share my view on the accuracy of the bookies.

Mar 04 Trump $1.50 Biden $3.50
Mar 11 Trump $1.80 Biden $2.10
Bookies get it right most of the time
which bet the one when this was posted or the one after the elections

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by glalt » May 24, 2020, 9:51 am

If Biden, and a big IF he is the candidate, The choice of a running mate will be very important. That vice president will likely become president when Biden dies or is deemed incompetent. I wouldn't be surprised if he chooses a far left black woman for a running mate. That would indeed be dangerous. Of course Bernie would also be in an identical position and likely worse than Uncle Joe.

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GT93
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by GT93 » May 24, 2020, 9:54 am

When there's a battle of the geriatrics, Mike Pence is pretty important too.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » May 24, 2020, 12:16 pm

Doodoo wrote:
May 24, 2020, 8:38 am
I never knew Trump was running for the Labor Party
???
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Chuchi » May 24, 2020, 2:20 pm

glalt wrote:
May 24, 2020, 9:51 am
If Biden, and a big IF he is the candidate, The choice of a running mate will be very important. That vice president will likely become president when Biden dies or is deemed incompetent. I wouldn't be surprised if he chooses a far left black woman for a running mate. That would indeed be dangerous. Of course Bernie would also be in an identical position and likely worse than Uncle Joe.
Betfair sportsbook has Hilary @21.0 and Michelle Obama@51.0 ,if I have one piece of advice for Joe Biden it would be to sleep with the lights on.

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Drunk Monkey
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Drunk Monkey » May 24, 2020, 9:15 pm

Chuchi wrote:
May 24, 2020, 2:20 pm
glalt wrote:
May 24, 2020, 9:51 am
If Biden, and a big IF he is the candidate, The choice of a running mate will be very important. That vice president will likely become president when Biden dies or is deemed incompetent. I wouldn't be surprised if he chooses a far left black woman for a running mate. That would indeed be dangerous. Of course Bernie would also be in an identical position and likely worse than Uncle Joe.
Betfair sportsbook has Hilary @21.0 and Michelle Obama@51.0 ,if I have one piece of advice for Joe Biden it would be to sleep with the lights on.
and
Dont fly in a plane or helicopter or
Accidentally shoot yourself in the back of the head or
commit suicide ..
Claret n Blue all way thru .. Up the Iron
L2 Season 19/20 Codheads 0 Scunny 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i2qrsItFUug
8 minutes is the point of lift off !!!!!!!

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » May 26, 2020, 10:09 pm

No change, I think many uncertainties are stopping bets. Trump self destructing, the impact of Covid and Joe's reported health. For me, not good value either way, you leave the money with the bookies 6 months ahead of the election not knowing how the next 6 months will pan out.

I suspect, that barring significant events, the market will be static until closer to election date

Mar 04 Trump $1.50 Biden $3.50
Mar 11 Trump $1.80 Biden $2.10
Mar 18 Trump $2:00 Biden $2.00
Mar 25 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.00
Apr 08`Trump $1.91 Biden $2.25
Apr 15 Trump $1.83 Biden $2.20
Apr 22 Trump $1.83 Biden $2.20
Apr 29 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.10
May 6 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.20
May 13 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.20
May 20 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.20
May 27 Trump $1.91 Biden $2.20
watching in horror

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by stattointhailand » May 26, 2020, 10:23 pm

any idea what the odds are on one or the other not getting to November?

must be a good chance of Slo Joe grinding to a halt or Trump ingesting some "miracle" poison by then

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by GT93 » May 27, 2020, 1:26 am

I'd thought of that too. Covid 19 might get either of them.

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Khun Paul
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Khun Paul » May 27, 2020, 6:46 am

Sadly it does show the level of stupidity and ignorance of the Mr Average American voter, who will get what they did or did not vote for as I really think that unless he wins Trump will use all measures to make the vote look full of fraud, etc, he will not take defeat lying down, partly because he will then be subject to so many court cases he might as well shoot himself.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Chuchi » May 27, 2020, 7:35 am

Khun Paul wrote:
May 27, 2020, 6:46 am
Sadly it does show the level of stupidity and ignorance of the Mr Average American voter, who will get what they did or did not vote for as I really think that unless he wins Trump will use all measures to make the vote look full of fraud, etc, he will not take defeat lying down, partly because he will then be subject to so many court cases he might as well shoot himself.
Haha. Yeah let's hope he's as magnanimous in defeat as the Democrats and his fan club on here.

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