Post Covid ecomony

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maaka
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Post Covid ecomony

Post by maaka » April 1, 2020, 1:44 pm

Not sure if we have gone down this track, but there are rumblings of future economic ruin around the globe, mass unemployment, rise in welfare dependancy, some industries going under, never to return, tourist trade collapse..is my pension safe. Have I a plan B should the purse strings tighten. Is my money safe in the bank?...I was just mulling these things over during my 14 day internment.
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FrazeeDK
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by FrazeeDK » April 1, 2020, 2:06 pm

guess that depends on how quickly the "curve flattens" and governments can push people back to work. In the U.S. with the multi-trillion dollar stimulus I fear that eventually inflation will ratchet up and destroy the value of the dollar. That certainly would impact on my being able to live here in Udon if it got totally out of control. On the flip side if there is a large international recession/depression looks like the value of all currencies will plunge so not as much effect.. That said, if the economy here in Thailand tanks badly, that means thousands of hungry people searching for money/food.. A bit Mad Max Dystopian... Not something nice to even contemplate.
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GT93
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by GT93 » April 1, 2020, 2:11 pm

I think international tourism will be on the ropes for quite a while. At least until a half decent vaccine is widely rolled out.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by mickojak » April 1, 2020, 2:47 pm

Imagine owning a cruise company.
You can kiss that industry goodbye for a few years mininum.

Be some cheap party ships for sale soon.
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maaka
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by maaka » April 1, 2020, 3:30 pm

well no government has bottomless pockets, and we can only stay on lockdown for so long before the natives get restless..
I am from a small remote island 90km off the coast of NZ, and already swams of boats have arrived to escape the lurg, and eat us out of house and home..Might be needin a wee ship myself soon Mick

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by anefarious1 » April 1, 2020, 3:50 pm

maaka wrote:
April 1, 2020, 1:44 pm
Not sure if we have gone down this track, but there are rumblings of future economic ruin around the globe, mass unemployment, rise in welfare dependancy, some industries going under, never to return, tourist trade collapse..is my pension safe. Have I a plan B should the purse strings tighten. Is my money safe in the bank?...I was just mulling these things over during my 14 day internment.
Mods. If this slots in some other thread, be a love..
Dysfunctional economies will soon replace the virus as the leading cause of death around the world (with the exception of India where they will be filling up dump trucks with bodies before long). No amount of government stimulus will fix it. Batten down the hatches! It's going to get ugly.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by mickojak » April 1, 2020, 5:36 pm

Maaka,
I agree with you.
After a certain time everyone will get sick of quarantine, not being able to pay their loans, boredom, lack of food etc.
There will be riots and force governments to get back to normal.
Once that starts, the rest of the world will follow.
Muck

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by Whistler » April 1, 2020, 5:50 pm

Economics 101.

Drivers for growth have been defined as Capital, Labor and that thing we used to call entrepreneurship. Post Covit 19 we will still have 2 and 3. Capital may be in great demand, money chases yield, interest rate must go up. A double whammy for governments who want the stimulus of low interest to spur growth.

During the great depression, the world ran on the Gold Standard. If in 1930 Ft Knox held gold, it printed currency equal to the value of that gold, in 1930 gold was $20.67 an ounce. The other source of capital was government bonds, or borrowed money.

We abandoned the gold standard many decades ago, so countries do print money based on trust and reputation, if it gets out of hand we have a run on the currency and this has happened to a few countries since WWII who then went into hyperinflation, Venezuela is in that cycle now. I bought five 100 billion Zimbabwe un-circulated notes from the peak of Mugabe's mismanagement. Paid $5 Aussie for each note.

So what may happen.

1. Governments may gobble up capital to such an extent that the banks will be starved of cash to support businesses.
2. Weaker economies, especially those that already are carrying massive debts will probably be vulnerable to a crisis of confidence and may have to offer big interest rates for their bonds and get deeper into debt...ugly. USA (has not seen a surplus for nearly 20 years), UK, Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal etc....a very long list
3. There will be an increase in bad debt at the company level, inevitable.
4. Some countries will be in such a state that the IMF can not help anymore.
5. Welfare payments may be reduced in many nations as the welfare bill swamps national economies
6. Deflation will probably come into play
7. Unemployment will skyrocket as companies who have run on debt for years, fail.

This is not like the great depression, countries will try quantitative easing and might pull it off as they are unshackled by the gold standard, but we are in totally unchartered waters.
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by RLTrader » April 1, 2020, 6:03 pm

Well it has been predicted that 2050 is "End Times" by more than me, and that from 2020 to that time will be Exponential!

Would expect the dollar to become worthless, very soon. You just can't keep printing more and expecting something different.

My Plan B?
dead before it happens!

Yours?

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by Whistler » April 1, 2020, 6:09 pm

RL, meet you at the cemetery gate, enjoy a beer and climb into our graves. nite nite!

Naw!!!! a realist, but still enjoying life, basically a survivor. The Grim Reaper has a fight on his hands when he comes for me
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by anefarious1 » April 1, 2020, 7:46 pm

Econ 202

The economy is intertwined with near endless parties involved. The ripple effects, partially in the West, eventually affect just about everyone in any field of economic activity.

If we had a base of citizens with large savings and very little debt (corporate and/or private), then the economy could eventually restart quickly enough once the dust settles.

Our fragile financial situation prior to this ongoing pandemic, is the reason why we'll never recover within the parameters of our present financial system.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by RLTrader » April 2, 2020, 3:21 pm

RLTrader wrote:
April 1, 2020, 6:03 pm
Well it has been predicted that 2050 is "End Times" by more than me, and that from 2020 to that time will be Exponential!

Would expect the dollar to become worthless, very soon. You just can't keep printing more and expecting something different.

My Plan B?
dead before it happens!

Yours?
Watching the News having a hard time coming to terms that predictions from 1972 could be so accurate, and only 3 months into 2020.

Sure glad I'm where I am for its not looking good for EU and then after a couple more weeks, what will the US look like?

:(

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by Whistler » April 2, 2020, 3:40 pm

There have been more 'end times' predicted than I have had hot breakfasts. Every doomsday cult to date has been 100% wrong. No matter how bad Covit 19 is, it does not compare to the black plague, The Spanish Flu, either world war and possibly the Great Depression.

We also have the technological capabilities to defeat it within 12 to 18 months, maybe sooner.

Can think of a number of religious cults in the West, many are in fact doomsday cults like the JW's, but I have often wondered why so many come out of the USA. Many of them interpret Revelations & Daniel as their source. When I read both of these books, I keep thinking what hallucinogens were available back then.
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by pipoz4444 » April 2, 2020, 4:53 pm

Unfortunately a number of countries economies are pegged to a certain extent, to trade with China and investment from China. [-X [-X

1.Australia relies a lot on China buying its natural Resources
2.Cambodia is presently heavily reliant on China's investment in both the Property Market and the growth of certain Cambodian industries
3.Thailand seems to depend a lot on China's investment in the Property Market and also Tourism
4.And so on (I could list many more)

It’s just how the Trade, Investment and Tourism has developed with China, over the past 15 years. So if China doesn't bounce back quickly, those countries tied to China in some economic way, will naturally feel the effect, if not already, i.e. firstly as an increase in their unemployment numbers and who knows what next. Few countries have the resources (balance sheets) to counter the rise in unemployment and sustain it for any length of time. Many have been battling/struggling with it for an number of years, without Covid 19.

As examples, the Australian Unemployment Rated in January 2020 (before Covid 19) was around 5.29%. We have hit 10% before and I dare say we will 10% ++ again, by the time Covid 19 has resolved itself around the world. The UK was only 3.9% in January 2020, not bad considering the Brexit uncertainty.

I would also suggest that a number of EU countries, will go into double digit unemployment (if they have't already), given their small businesses will have taken a big hit by the time this is over and their tourism industries will be decimated as well.

People will tend to stay at home for a long time after this subsides and conserve their cash is they have any left, and partly in fear of it (Covid 19) coming back. Its only natural. :-k :-k

Countries such as those below will really struggle;
Italy
Spain
Austria
France - maybe, can’t quiet work out if they have an economy of not?? :roll: :roll:
Greece - for the time they remain in it (the EU)
Turkey - if they ever get in it (the EU)

Then there is;
East European Countries: Well most are already 10% ++ unemployment, some 20% ++
South American Countries: Well most are already 10% ++ unemployment
African Countries; Many are already above 25% ++unemployment, some actually doing quiet well (Cameroon)
Caribbean: Not even sure they have an “Employment Rate” :roll: :roll:

The only questions are, how many of the Countries, will go 10% plus, plus, unemployment and how many years they will stay there

Prolonged unemployment for a lot of people, will lead to increase in crime, that’s the danger and the worry :-k :-k

Just my 2 cents worth

pipoz4444

Top 30 Countires with Highest & Lowest Unemployment Rate.png
Last edited by pipoz4444 on April 2, 2020, 5:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by RLTrader » April 2, 2020, 4:58 pm

Small Circle of Friends - Phil Ochs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMeG6dAFqXw


Love Me, I'm a Liberal

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3cdqQ2BdgOA

should end with

Phil Ochs - Flower Lady (Live)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUXd-59 ... A&index=12

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by chopperjoey » April 2, 2020, 10:14 pm

The Covid crisis is just great. A few punches will seperate the healthy economies and healthy societies from the less healthy more rigid societies.
America is crumbling more deaths than China and it cant deal with the crisis. It has to order ventilators from China and unlike Thailand, there is no unity which proves to be fatal. New York cant cope, is falling apart. Europe, first the mass immigration crisis, now Covid, Europe is crumbling wont recover.
The only nations with the fastest and best aproach and unity and flexibility to deal with this crisis are the Asian nations like Thailand.

Just lovin it the whole crisis. Air quality in Udon is fine again, not choking on fumes anymore when biking through the city.
Airquality in other countries just unimaginably great. Just saw this on cnn, on the left India one year ago, on the right India now on curfew.
The global airquality improvement will save MILLIONS OF PEOPLE, according to the WHO.

Something to think about...
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by parrot » April 2, 2020, 11:52 pm

Back in Septemberish 2008, my 5 brothers were visiting while we were vacationing in Texas. We were 'on vacation' and enjoying ourselves........as the economy began to crumble. The market tanked, financial and insurance companies began to tank and there was incessant talk of doom and gloom....to the point where, one night sitting with one of my brothers enjoying a vacation margarita, I told him I was getting worried of bank/credit union failures where I had a chunk of change for my retirement years. He told me, under the influence of alcohol, 'if the banks tank, we're all screwed'. And with that, I think we refilled our glasses and realized that under those potential circumstances, life as we knew it would change for everyone.
As the weeks/months ground on, you either put your faith in Hank Paulson and Tim Geitner, sleeping comfortably knowing they were trying their best to save the economy......or, if you didn't put your faith in them, you didn't sleep and worried about things that were pretty much out of your control.
We can look at the 1918 pandemic and try to predict the future.........but things have changed so much in the past 100 years with technology, medicine, global trade, that the outcome from Covid could be either worse or better than back then. For me, I'm going to put my faith in the world's experts to figure things out.........and try to ignore the commentary from people who really have no clue about the future of things. Tomorrow there could be a medical breakthrough that puts this all behind......or not. At this point in time, all we can do is rely on the experts.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by the-monk » April 2, 2020, 11:59 pm

Yes Mr. Parrot, i like your last sentence. Yes Mr. Parrot i like your last word : EXPERTS.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by AlexO » April 3, 2020, 12:09 am

For me, I'm going to put my faith in the world's experts to figure things out.........and try to ignore the commentary from people who really have no clue about the future of things. Tomorrow there could be a medical breakthrough that puts this all behind......or not. At this point in time, all we can do is rely on the experts.

Would those experts include the UK Chief Scientific Advisor who recommended letting everyone catch Covid-19 so we could build a "herd immunity" Trouble with this one is that it is new, no one has any real idea of how to combat it, so in real terms there are no experts. We are in the lap of the Gods at the moment.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by Khun Paul » April 3, 2020, 7:18 am

We are all Ex-spurts as it were, one of the problems is many have their own versions, no consistency no major plan accepted by all , so as thinking human beings we are pulled this way or the other . Whether you believe the information coming from the WHO or not they are at least consistent and hells bells they NOT BEING Politicians have no axe to grind other than trying to ensure the continual health of the Human Race.
Financially I am at the mercy of the Financial Gurus and hope , Medically I am at the mercy of the WHO , personally I will do my best to weather the storm one way of the other as we all will do I expect.

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