Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

General Udon Thani topics only!
Doodoo
udonmap.com
Posts: 710
Joined: October 15, 2017, 8:47 pm

Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by Doodoo » June 11, 2019, 8:07 pm

Have noticed over the past month or so businesses closing down, shopping purchases down, less Red Plates on the Road (Although they said they would not be issued anymore), more houses for rent or sale here on the Map and in general while driving around both in and outside the city etc

On the 4 lane bypass in the past while in a span of 500 meters 3 restaurants have shutdown, and one exercise club shutdown.
We have a friend that has a shop at Central and she says business is way down. Not that people arent shopping it is that people arent buying.

Any other indicators?

User avatar
parrot
udonmap.com
Posts: 8927
Joined: March 19, 2006, 8:32 pm

Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by parrot » June 11, 2019, 10:29 pm

School's back in session. Restaurants come and go as do businesses started without a plan. All seems pretty normal normal

Doodoo
udonmap.com
Posts: 710
Joined: October 15, 2017, 8:47 pm

Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by Doodoo » June 12, 2019, 6:19 am

Thanks Parrot
Agree with the school example but the exercise place had been there for over a year or two, where as two of the restaurants had been established for 3-4 years
As for the store in Central another group not showing up are the people from Laos

So will have to wait and see

User avatar
kopkei
udonmap.com
Posts: 1308
Joined: August 27, 2010, 6:55 am

Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by kopkei » June 12, 2019, 8:08 am

businesses closing down ,it is going on for a long time , anyone been in landmark recently? ,central? ,small shops next to the road closing down ,restaurants ... the Udonites are jumping to high , too high prices scaring of buyers /customers,
also caused by to high rents for the sellers , many other city's in Los way cheaper than Udon ...they will have to come down to normal prices to win customers back or drown ... :(

vlad
udonmap.com
Posts: 1488
Joined: July 23, 2008, 8:03 pm
Location: united kingdom.

Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by vlad » June 12, 2019, 10:53 am

They will use the Traditional way of trouble here simply pass the hit onto the customer and charge higher for the goods.

User avatar
parrot
udonmap.com
Posts: 8927
Joined: March 19, 2006, 8:32 pm

Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by parrot » June 12, 2019, 1:03 pm

Most of the restaurants we see fail fail because of poor service or poorly prepared food or bad location. This has been the case pretty much since we arrived in 1996. When it comes to restaurants/coffee shops, I disagree with the assessment "pass the hit onto the customer and charge higher for the goods." A place like Dose/VT/Beyond/and the wet noodle shop across from the satellite post office (ร้านข้าวเปียก อุดร) provide quality products with quality service and they've been in business for many years. Copy cat coffee shops/restaurants or the umpteenth Japanese-style restaurant in town probably can't compete......and they'll fail soon enough.
School's in session....a lot of families have to stretch the finances to buy supplies/uniforms/tuition/tutors. That's always been the case this time of year.
If I ever go past the AIS offices in Central and note a lack of customers paying their mobile phone bills, I'll believe there's a slowdown. Until then, I see enough red plates of all sizes vehicle to know we're not there yet. IMO

NongKhaiLee
udonmap.com
Posts: 168
Joined: September 6, 2012, 4:53 am

Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by NongKhaiLee » June 12, 2019, 2:05 pm

I Started noticing it here in NongKhai and down there in Udon about two years ago, quite a few shops shutting down, many not all that old. When I asked people running neighboring businesses what happened the usual reply is "it's the economy, people don't have money to spend"
Up here in Nongkers we are still seeing lots of Lao, but since the Lao Gov started cracking down on customs fees at the border there is noticably less spending as far as merchandise goes, they still seem to pack the eating places though.

User avatar
Giggle
udonmap.com
Posts: 870
Joined: October 18, 2016, 4:24 pm

Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by Giggle » June 12, 2019, 2:29 pm

Udon Thani is poor value. Travel to Kohn Kaen, Korat or any other place in Isaan -- or better still go to the Bangkok suburbs or even the PKK coast and compare prices of food, lodging and services to Udon Thani. My wife notices it far more than I do.

Udon is poor value.

pipoz4444
udonmap.com
Posts: 498
Joined: April 8, 2011, 1:33 am
Location: All Over the Place

Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by pipoz4444 » June 12, 2019, 2:44 pm

Doodoo wrote:
June 11, 2019, 8:07 pm
Have noticed over the past month or so businesses closing down, shopping purchases down, less Red Plates on the Road (Although they said they would not be issued anymore), more houses for rent or sale here on the Map and in general while driving around both in and outside the city etc

On the 4 lane bypass in the past while in a span of 500 meters 3 restaurants have shutdown, and one exercise club shutdown.
We have a friend that has a shop at Central and she says business is way down. Not that people arent shopping it is that people arent buying.

Any other indicators?
No, we in Udon and I dare say in Thailand, are not heading into a Recession

I would say that there has been some under certainty this year, around the time of the Election and thereafter regarding what the outcome might be, which may have had some impact on business confidence. Then there is International Forum and the potential for further business confidence uncertainty, as Thailand leans towards China with Trade and the risk of upsetting existing trade with the USA. All this can contribute to a lack in business confidence.

But, if you believe the Economic Forecast for Thailand, the growth forecast is predicted to be 3.8 % + for this year and a bit more in 2020, which is considered moderate to good in the current world climate. Sure, it will not be across all business sectors in Thailand and some will do better and some will fail. And it is not at the top performance of the predicted Asian Country Growth Forecasts.

Then there is it currency exchange rate, which for whatever reason has proven to be pretty stable over the past 5 1/2 years (since October 2013) moving between 34 and 31.3. Most of the time in that 31 to 33 range, to the USD. Today the Exchange Rate is back to where it was in October 2013. By comparison to other Asian countries, Thailand’s currency exchange rate to the USD is relatively stable, which tends to spell well for the general cost of living in Thailand. Just look at how the currency exchange rates of Indonesia, India, Philippines & Malaysia and how they have devalued (against the USD) over the past 5 1/2 years. Even Singapore’s currency has slid back a bit.

https://www.oecd.org/development/asia-p ... ew_WEB.pdf

We as Urbanites, tend to see only part of Thailand Business sector, much of it Retail, food and or Beverage, which tends to be the most up and down, not so much because of the external forces, but because many Thais go into a retail/food and drink type business, without doing their homework. They seem to start these types of business, because they are easy to start, they don’t need a lot of capital upfront and in some case, because they see a similar business down the road that appears to be doing well or even because they just hear about the idea from a friend. Then overnight they start the same/similar business, if nothing else to find out there location for that type of business sucks and there are few potential customers in that area? I know it’s a bit of a generalization, but it is one that I see being repeated on a local level.

Anyway back to Thailand as a whole, the Economy seems to be ticking along and Thailand has some strong business models. Tourism is a bit up and down and its economy is quite dependent on export, its export business models for machinery & equipment manufacture, electronic goods, automobile& parts manufacture, rubbers & plastic products, packaged/processed foods & beverages, seem to be in steady demand. Plus, Thailand does not spend enormous amounts of it GDP on Military and or Social Welfare (something the West should take a look at)

Given the recent Election result , I personally don’t see anything that could cause a major economic downturn in Thailand (call it a recession if you like, but that’s the extreme) or any future sharp spike in inflation (as it would relate to an increase in day to day living in Thailand), happening over the next 3 years, plus. I see a stable economic lifestyle in Thailand for the foreseeable future.

Just my 2 Cents worth \:D/

pipoz4444

DuiDui49
udonmap.com
Posts: 757
Joined: March 15, 2006, 3:10 pm
Location: Koh Samui

Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by DuiDui49 » June 12, 2019, 2:48 pm

..and at the Talad Nongsamrong Road..it's been bad too..When a THAI ask me or my wife how she/we manage,we tell them the truth...and the Thai lady says same...maybe 50% down..Even those Thais that just sell Bami noodles on the sidewalk,closes just after a couple of months.
It's bad..and i can't see anything at all chaging that atleast for the coming years..but i hope i'm wrong.

Have a great one..//DD :-)
Best regards
//DuiDui

“May we ever choose the harder right, instead of the easier wrong.” — Thomas Monson

"To grow and mature demands time and willingness to learn from your own misstakes"

User avatar
Raoul Duke
udonmap.com
Posts: 218
Joined: March 29, 2017, 10:17 am
Location: 76.3 k's south of Laos border

Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by Raoul Duke » June 12, 2019, 3:25 pm

On the surface it looks same as always to me.
Central was packed to the rafters on Sunday and all food outlets busy.
But maybe all window shoppers and tyre kickers?
If business is slow you will see prices hiked soon enough.
Seems to be the Thai way.No customers so increase your prices instead of trying to attract customers by lowering prices.
Plenty of money around in my observations.Definately not recession environment.
Voiceover for hire.

the-monk
udonmap.com
Posts: 567
Joined: August 20, 2012, 4:56 am

Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by the-monk » June 12, 2019, 3:31 pm

For the last 50 years or so Thailand has enjoyed a streak of good luck, from the Vietnam War that brought in money, people and business, to the Communist Scare, which was used to channel a lot of industries here in order to prevent Thailand from falling in the Communist world. The USA via Japan poured in billions , the car, the electronic industries etc. Thailand was the Western refuge in South East Asia. Thailand had a young population and could depend on millions of << slave>> labour. In the last 10 years the landscape evolved drastically, Thailand is aging, the other Asian countries are catching up, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia now have similar GDP figures. If we include Vietnam and look in our crystal ball we see a stormy sky over Thailand.
Thailand is hill prepared to fight the emerging New Tigers ( Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia ) ready to pounce on new economic opportunities. For instance Vietnam has trade agreement with the Pacific deal, the USA and the EU, Thailand has none making the Thai products more expensive in foreign markets.
Is Thailand in recession ? I don t know…. But to me Thailand’s future looks uncertain… filled with important challenges demanding drastic actions…..

User avatar
Drunk Monkey
udonmap.com
Posts: 3045
Joined: October 14, 2013, 4:39 pm

Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by Drunk Monkey » June 12, 2019, 4:15 pm

the-monk wrote:
June 12, 2019, 3:31 pm
For the last 50 years or so Thailand has enjoyed a streak of good luck, from the Vietnam War that brought in money, people and business, to the Communist Scare, which was used to channel a lot of industries here in order to prevent Thailand from falling in the Communist world. The USA via Japan poured in billions , the car, the electronic industries etc. Thailand was the Western refuge in South East Asia. Thailand had a young population and could depend on millions of << slave>> labour. In the last 10 years the landscape evolved drastically, Thailand is aging, the other Asian countries are catching up, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia now have similar GDP figures. If we include Vietnam and look in our crystal ball we see a stormy sky over Thailand.
Thailand is hill prepared to fight the emerging New Tigers ( Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia ) ready to pounce on new economic opportunities. For instance Vietnam has trade agreement with the Pacific deal, the USA and the EU, Thailand has none making the Thai products more expensive in foreign markets.
Is Thailand in recession ? I don t know…. But to me Thailand’s future looks uncertain… filled with important challenges demanding drastic actions…..
Was chatting to a Thai businessman in Bkk coupla days ago and he was hopeful now the political uncertainty is clearing that we will see more investment and property /land sales freeing up money into the economy .. IM NOT SO SURE ... most Thais i deal with are very unhappy how the recent election was conducted and the outcome left many with a bad taste in the mouth so .. i too can see years of uncertainty continuing.

As for recession .. many of our booze customers are saying bizz is slow but thats pretty normal this time of year especially May as it sees the fall out from Songkhran and as Parrot says the schools reopening means less money in pockets to spend in the shops , bars n restaurants .

DM

User avatar
Old Grumpy
udonmap.com
Posts: 152
Joined: April 28, 2018, 10:36 am

Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by Old Grumpy » June 12, 2019, 4:18 pm

Recession? Tell that to Tops in the centre they are just completing an extension to their existing store which will nearly double it's capacity .

the-monk
udonmap.com
Posts: 567
Joined: August 20, 2012, 4:56 am

Re: Are we into a Recession already here in Udon?

Post by the-monk » June 12, 2019, 4:45 pm

I have not seen yet the new TOPS extension that you mentioned but it s a step forward to stay relevant ,to stay on top of the game. Look how Big C has improved over the last 12 months. The Central Group announced last year that they were going to transform all their Central Plaza locations, from shopping centres to LIFESTYLE Centres and this Tops expansion must be part of it. They fully understand that with the emergence of online shopping, consumer fluctuating tastes , measures must be taken to keep attracting a good footfall. Department stores, shopping centres are in a decline all over the world, from Tokyo, to London, NYC , Central and Tops must attempt to slow down and postpone this quasi inevitable situation.

Post Reply

Return to “General Udon Thani Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests