Trump addresses EU trade deficit

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newtovillagelife
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Re: Trump addresses US trade deficit

Post by newtovillagelife » September 11, 2018, 11:22 am

Udon Map wrote:
September 11, 2018, 11:05 am
Lone Star wrote:
September 11, 2018, 9:29 am
First, your charts are not a reflection of the principles that drive the economy.
The old my-data-matters-but-yours-doesn't argument.

Wage growth by month in the Obama and Trump presidencies was almost identical, -- during the Trump years it shows a strong a growing economy, but during the Obama years it was "not a reflection of the principles that drive the economy." Right. Got it.

Non-farm payroll went up in almost a straight line during Obama's term, but that doesn't count, either.

The unemployment rate went from around 10% to around 4% during the Obama years, but that, too, didn't prove anything.

Same with GDP. Up in almost a straight line during Obama, but that doesn't show anything.

The only data that matters is data that shows that Trump is the greatest who ever lived. All other data is either fake news or irrelevant. Right?
Nonsense Trump is doing a great job with the economy. Way better than Obama.

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Re: Trump addresses US trade deficit

Post by Udon Map » September 11, 2018, 11:39 am

newtovillagelife wrote:
September 11, 2018, 11:22 am
Nonsense Trump is doing a great job with the economy. Way better than Obama.
Go back and read my post. I never suggested that Trump wasn't doing a great job with the economy.
Udon Map wrote:
September 11, 2018, 8:34 am
There is no question that the economy has done well under Trump, and the statistics bear that out.

But Trump did not turn around a failing Obama economy, because the economy wasn't failing under Obama.

Who's been better on the economy? That depends on what measures you use.

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Re: Trump addresses EU trade deficit

Post by Lone Star » September 11, 2018, 6:56 pm

Wage growth by month in the Obama and Trump presidencies was almost identical, -- during the Trump years it shows a strong a growing economy, but during the Obama years it was "not a reflection of the principles that drive the economy." Right. Got it.

Non-farm payroll went up in almost a straight line during Obama's term, but that doesn't count, either.

The unemployment rate went from around 10% to around 4% during the Obama years, but that, too, didn't prove anything.

Same with GDP. Up in almost a straight line during Obama, but that doesn't show anything.

The only data that matters is data that shows that Trump is the greatest who ever lived. All other data is either fake news or irrelevant. Right?


Straw man argument. All of it.

None of that is what I posted.

The charts you provided were not only not sourced (except one), but the data you tried to provide does not drive the economy. For that reason, the source of the charts don't even matter.

If nonfarm payroll and GDP went up as you claim ("almost a straight line"), Obama's economy would have soared. There wouldn't have been 90+ million out of the workforce or 40+ million on welfare -- both the highest in recorded US history.

Obama would also have achieved over 2% annual GDP growth. Obama is the only president never to achieve 2% annual GDP growth. Why didn't he? Because the numbers in your charts don't reflect a strong or upward trend in a growing economy by themselves. Business drives the economy, and the business trends were spiking downward with Obama's "you didn't build that" rhetoric and "eat the rich" mentality. Highest corporate tax in the world didn't help either. Add all the regulations, and it's a very unfriendly business environment.

The downward trends in business and the rollercoaster trends in jobs and payroll and GDP translated to FLAT overall.

There were no upward trends in the driver of the economy -- business.

When I disagree, I state WHY, and I did so with the following criticism relative to your charts. There was no silly talk of "my charts are better just because." However, you chose to characterize it that way. Straw man.
The charts provided by CEA Chairman Kevin Hassett reflected the factors that drive the economy -- business investment, business optimism, business inventory, business expansion, etc. All of those trends were spiking downward leading up to the election, and all spiked north at the time of the election. They're all in the video, and the charts provide dramatic evidence of business optimism after Trump's election.

BUSINESS DRIVES the ECONOMY. The economy doesn't drive business. Business drives hiring. Business drives GDP. Business drives the stock market. And all of those things, as Hassett explained, are driven by forward-looking optimism (which wasn't there prior to the election). And what drives business? More freedom, less regulation, more profit to keep (including individual tax breaks), more investment in the markets, more capital to invest and hire and build. Obama provided none of that. His policies were stifling.


Trump unleashed it all, which caused the surge that is seen today. All cylinders are pumping.
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Re: Trump addresses US trade deficit

Post by Lone Star » September 11, 2018, 7:02 pm

I've said all along that it made no sense how Obama's unemployment numbers were going down despite two glaring huge negative numbers that are inescapable and occurred during his administration:

1. Over 90 million Americans out of the workforce, no longer collecting unemployment, and had given up looking for work. That's somewhere between 1/4 and a full 1/3 of the US population. The largest number in America's history.

2. Over 40 million Americans on welfare. The largest number in America's history.

Even though BOTH of those those catostrophic occurrences were happening in America, Obama's unemployment numbers kept going down.

Here's how it happened.

Nearly 95% of all new jobs during Obama era were part-time, or contract
https://www.investing.com/news/economy- ... ork-449057

This data from Harvard and Princeton more than adequately explains how unemployment numbers could go down under Obama's watch, but Obama would STILL have more Americans out of the workforce (over 90 million) and more Americans on welfare (more than 40 million) than at any time in America's history.

It is an impossibility for anyone to claim a rising economy with so many people out of the workforce and on welfare. But that's how Obama's numbers jived. He counted contract and part-time workers whose jobs went away and eventually left them unemployed and/or making too little to get off of welfare. Those jobs were NOT full time jobs.

Even Donna Brazile, one the heads of the DNC at the time of the election, has since admitted the disparity in jobs and the fact that so many were low-wage jobs that were not sustainable.

More sources:

HuffPo and Reuters - 2013
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/08/ ... 88365.html

Zero Hedge - with more data from the Harvard/Princeton study
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12- ... -part-time

Quartz - 2016
https://www.cebglobal.com/talentdaily/p ... ew-normal/

Alan Krueger, one of Obama's top White House economists is quoted extensively:
“We find that 94% of net job growth in the past decade was in the alternative work category,” said Krueger. “And over 60% was due to the [the rise] of independent contractors, freelancers and contract company workers.” In other words, nearly all of the 10 million jobs created between 2005 and 2015 were not traditional nine-to-five employment.
“Workers seeking full-time, steady work have lost,” said Krueger.
Investors.com - 2016
https://www.investors.com/politics/comm ... ou-to-see/

Image
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Take that 14.4 million job growth number. That sounds impressive doesn't it? But that job growth is stretched over almost six full years, during which time the working age population grew by 15.8 million.

In that respect, we've lost ground on jobs under Obama.

What's more, that 14.4 million increase in jobs is measured against when the job market hit rock bottom in February 2010. If you compare the current number of jobs to the previous jobs peak in January 2008 -- which is how job growth is normally measured -- the number of private-sector jobs has increased just 5.6 million.

During that time, the population grew by more than 20 million. In other words, there's a jobs gap of more than 14 million.
In Reagan's recovery and in Trump's MAGAnomics, there are MORE JOBS than Americans looking for work.
Meanwhile, the number of people who aren't in the labor force but do want to work is higher today than when Obama took office. And the median length of unemployment is now 11.4 weeks, which is also higher than when Obama took office.
So you see, that's how the Messiah fooled folks. He counted part-time jobs and contract jobs that didn't last. Those temp jobs kept people on welfare and/or put them in the situation where they were in and out of the workforce and repeatedly looking for work as job after job stopped.

It also explains why real numbers in MAGAnomics reflected a huge spike.

And here are the individual charts from Kevin Hasset, which show a clear break in trends at the time of the election.

Image
New Business Applications (dotted line is the trend line -- applications take off and easily exceed the trend)

Image
Capital Goods Orders & Shipments (dotted line is the trend line -- downward -- prior to the election)

Image
Business Conditions (dotted line is the trend line -- flat -- prior to the election)

Image
Blue Collar Jobs (dotted line is the trend line -- downward -- prior to the election)

Image
Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment (exceeds CBO estimates of June and April 2017)

Image
Business Investment - Nonresidential Fixed, Structures, Equipment (dotted line is the trend line -- downward -- prior to the election)

Either Obama was NOT intelligent enough to know how to do it, or he was purposely stifling business growth in the US. Neither one is good.

Trump unleashed the drivers of the economy by simply doing the opposite of what Obama did.
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Re: Trump addresses EU trade deficit

Post by Udon Map » September 11, 2018, 7:40 pm

Lone Star wrote:
September 11, 2018, 6:56 pm
Straw man argument. All of it.

None of that is what I posted.

The charts you provided were not only not sourced (except one), but the data you tried to provide does not drive the economy. For that reason, the source of the charts don't even matter.
Q.E.D.

As I said,
Udon Map wrote:
September 11, 2018, 11:05 am
The only data that matters is data that shows that Trump is the greatest who ever lived. All other data is either fake news or irrelevant. Right?
So I'm not going to waste a lot of time demonstrating the sources of my data. I'll post one in case anyone else is curious; but you'll obviously label it fake news or irrelevant.

The unemployment data is from the Bureau of Labor Statics. As you can see, this is a graph of the unemployment rate during the Obama years.

So which one is it this time, -- is this fake news? Or doesn't it matter?

Screenshot 2018-09-11 19.36.20.png

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Re: Trump addresses US trade deficit

Post by Lone Star » September 11, 2018, 8:25 pm

Udon Map wrote:
September 11, 2018, 7:40 pm

. . .
That screenshot is correct. I never said that any of your charts were wrong. I said that the data they represented did not drive the economy.

The part you're missing is HOW Obama was able to make his numbers look that way with 90+ million Americans out of the workforce and 40+ million on welfare -AND- those numbers did NOT drive the economy. If they did, Obama would have achieved 2% annual GDP. It didn't happen. Business drives the economy with good, full time jobs.

I'll say it one more time for those reading: Part-time and contract jobs were how Obama's unemployment numbers hit a downward trajectory. Those types of jobs amounted to 94-95% of the 10 million job numbers. Even Obama's own economic analyst admitted it (source provided). People were bouncing in and out of part-time and contract jobs and not making enough to get off of welfare.

I provided multiple sources with that same data.
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Re: Trump addresses US trade deficit

Post by Udon Map » September 11, 2018, 10:06 pm

Lone Star wrote:
September 11, 2018, 8:25 pm
That screenshot is correct. I never said that any of your charts were wrong.
Enough with the word parsing games. You never said that my charts were wrong, true; you merely complained that they "were not sourced." If you agree that the charts are correct, what difference does it make where I got them? You know that they're right; why complain about the source, if not to hint at the possibility that they might not be accurate, or, as President Trump likes to call it, that they might be fake news?

Enjoy the rest of the conversation. It's the same nonsense, -- wash, rinse, repeat. No matter what we're talking about, Trump does it better. Got it.

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Re: Trump addresses US trade deficit

Post by Lone Star » September 11, 2018, 11:29 pm

Udon Map wrote:
September 11, 2018, 10:06 pm
Lone Star wrote:
September 11, 2018, 8:25 pm
That screenshot is correct. I never said that any of your charts were wrong.
Enough with the word parsing games. You never said that my charts were wrong, true; you merely complained that they "were not sourced." If you agree that the charts are correct, what difference does it make where I got them? You know that they're right; why complain about the source, if not to hint at the possibility that they might not be accurate, or, as President Trump likes to call it, that they might be fake news?

Enjoy the rest of the conversation. It's the same nonsense, -- wash, rinse, repeat. No matter what we're talking about, Trump does it better. Got it.
You're full of straw men. I never said that Trump does it better.
I said that the data they represented did not drive the economy.

The part you're missing is HOW Obama was able to make his numbers look that way with 90+ million Americans out of the workforce and 40+ million on welfare -AND- those numbers did NOT drive the economy. If they did, Obama would have achieved 2% annual GDP. It didn't happen. Business drives the economy with good, full time jobs.
I think that you may be out of your depth to be able to discuss this intelligently. There is no other explanation when you continue to not only ignore all of my sourced information, but I've had to correct you three times or more about my reasons for discounting your charts.

One more time for good measure:
I said that the data they represented did not drive the economy.

Nothing about your silly straw man comments about "Trump does it better" blah blah blah. :D
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Re: Trump addresses US trade deficit

Post by Udon Map » September 12, 2018, 2:12 am

Lone Star wrote:
September 11, 2018, 11:29 pm
I never said that Trump does it better.
Could'a fooled me.

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Re: Trump addresses US trade deficit

Post by Giggle » September 12, 2018, 3:39 pm

Udon Map wrote:
September 11, 2018, 10:06 pm
If you agree that the charts are correct, what difference does it make where I got them? You know that they're right; why complain about the source, if not to hint at the possibility that they might not be accurate ...
Aren't you the same guy that routinely dismisses news reports based exclusively on the source -- if it doesn't fit with your worldview? Your hypocrisy is staggering.

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Re: Trump addresses US trade deficit

Post by Udon Map » September 12, 2018, 11:21 pm

Giggle wrote:
September 12, 2018, 3:39 pm
Udon Map wrote:
September 11, 2018, 10:06 pm
If you agree that the charts are correct, what difference does it make where I got them? You know that they're right; why complain about the source, if not to hint at the possibility that they might not be accurate ...
Aren't you the same guy that routinely dismisses news reports based exclusively on the source -- if it doesn't fit with your worldview? Your hypocrisy is staggering.
I don't think so. Can you find an example?

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Re: Trump addresses US trade deficit

Post by Udon Map » September 13, 2018, 12:25 am

Udon Map wrote:
September 12, 2018, 11:21 pm
Giggle wrote:
September 12, 2018, 3:39 pm
Udon Map wrote:
September 11, 2018, 10:06 pm
If you agree that the charts are correct, what difference does it make where I got them? You know that they're right; why complain about the source, if not to hint at the possibility that they might not be accurate ...
Aren't you the same guy that routinely dismisses news reports based exclusively on the source -- if it doesn't fit with your worldview? Your hypocrisy is staggering.
I don't think so. Can you find an example?
Oh, I remember what you're talking about now! I'd say two things in response:

1. LS doesn't deny the accuracy of the data I presented. As I said to him, if he knows that the data is correct, what's the point in arguing about the source?

2. I never suggested ignoring news or information based on its source. I said that one needs to keep in mind that basically all news sources and media outlets have a point of view, and many have an agenda. When one is evaluating the information from that source, one should keep the point of view or agenda in mind. It obviously slants what is reported and the way it's reported. I, for one, am really tired of the left bias of most mainstream media. I would love to have an objective source for news and information. And the ones on the right are nearly as bad.

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Re: Trump addresses EU trade deficit

Post by pipoz4444 » September 28, 2018, 7:09 pm

pipoz4444 wrote:
August 25, 2018, 5:53 pm
come again ? was this one of your predictions
Image
On Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he would like to form “a new alliance” with China, Iran and Russia to resist economic pressures imposed by the Donald Trump administration.
Some analysts predicted Beijing, while embroiled in a trade war with the US, may offer some financial assistance to Turkey, such as buying yuan-denominated bonds
Earlier this month, Cavusoglu met Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing and promised to treat security threats to China as threats to itself, pledging that it would not allow any “anti-China activities” within its territory.
[/quote]

Promising financial assistance is one thing, actually giving it out, is another

So we will just have to wait and see how much they actually give to Turkey \:D/

Just my 2 cents worth
[/quote]

I see Erdogan is out begging for a hand out again. Gone over to see the Germans. Don't think he is going to get any cash bailout from them

He hasn't had much luck over the last month. Think he will find out that he really doesn't have too many friends. :-k

However, the exchange rate has come back somewhat from 6.75 to the USD, to around 6.00

pipoz4444

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Re: Trump addresses EU trade deficit

Post by tamada » September 30, 2018, 1:52 pm

China's insidious Belt & Road, aka bait and switch, divide and conquer, rape and pillage. It truly has no limits.

...but that's a helluva long road to Istanbul, no?

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Re: Trump addresses EU trade deficit

Post by Lone Star » November 11, 2018, 10:12 am

I'm not surprised that there was no eneMedia frenzy over this breakthrough on trade with China. It's called hiding news that doesn't fit their agenda.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46093478
Xi Jinping pledges to cut Chinese import tariffs

Yes, like all the other countries who have taken advantage of the US through trade, China blinked. Only the cheerleaders for failure were deniers. Only the cheerleaders for failure were convinced that trade sanctions would destroy the US economy. Nope. And it's because of what I articulated before: The US is in a unique position where they have the resources, the supply chains and population large enough to be a self-sustaining economy.

Xi announced last week that he promises to lower tariffs, increase imports and better protect intellectual property rights. The details have to be hammered out, but Xi will meet with Trump at the end of the month.

Everyone just laughed and laughed and said Trump wouldn't get any trade deals -- not with anyone.

Trump and America are laughing now.

STEADY WINNING.
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