Die Dollar! Die!

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KHONDAHM
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Die Dollar! Die!

Post by KHONDAHM » December 9, 2009, 8:50 pm

A summary of where it is at and what is likely to happen over the coming years:

GOLD IS NOT GOING UP – PAPER MONEY IS GOING DOWN
http://matterhornassetmanagement.com/20 ... oing-down/

Moody's to downgrade US and UK debt
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 75842.html
Moody's Investors Service says the U.S. and U.K. must prove they can whittle down their ballooning deficits to avoid threats to their triple-A credit ratings.
Does anyone have a link to published EXTERNAL analysis of what is REALLY going on within Thailand's banking and finance system? All I can seem to find are government propagandists and such.



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JimboPSM
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by JimboPSM » December 9, 2009, 10:30 pm

I have not yet come across any external analysis of Thailand that does not contradict, in some way shape or form, some of my own knowledge (or should that be illusions or delusions?) – the various reports that I have read over the years appeared (IMHO) to lack professional objectivity and to have been produced in support of some subjective agenda - but sometimes I may be overly cynical.

If anyone does actually know of a really reliable objective external source I would also like to know it.

A large amount of interesting economic and financial data can be found on the Bank of Thailand website: http://www.bot.or.th/English/Pages/BOTDefault.aspx

However, before relying on the data you should satisfy yourself that the degree of its completeness and accuracy is suitable for your needs.

In common with economic data from many countries (including the UK & the US) some of it is provisional (and subject to later revision), some appears to be the extrapolated results of sample data (how accurate is the sample?) etc, etc.

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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by nevket240 » December 12, 2009, 8:43 am

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldn ... liams.html

Jimbo. this chap is always worth listening to. not on-topic but along financial lines. do you read 'shadowstats.com' mind boggling figures.
his figures are more mind boggling than the figure of a barmaid serving Tiger. :shock: :roll:

regards

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KHONDAHM
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by KHONDAHM » December 12, 2009, 5:17 pm

I began reading shadowstats.com a few years ago. Although I do not subscribe anymore, I look there for a reality check when the media spin about the economics of this or that goes on a binge. My alternative cheapo way of subscribing without subscribing is to Google [whatever +shadowstats.com] to get media analysis and reports referencing the site.

Shadowstats is like the prophet of reality, and I respect that they peddle facts and not spin or hype. Well worth the subscription for anyone serious about real information.

Thanks for bringing it up on this thread.

Cheers! ;)

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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by nevket240 » December 13, 2009, 1:00 pm

http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread ... post138356

looking forward to Pt saawng
regards

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KHONDAHM
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by KHONDAHM » December 27, 2009, 12:28 pm

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac receive unlimited future funds from taxpayers to stay afloat
NEW YORK (AP) — The government has handed its ATM card to beleaguered mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The Treasury Department said Thursday it removed the $400 billion financial cap on the money it will provide to keep the companies afloat. Already, taxpayers have shelled out $111 billion to the pair, and a senior Treasury official said losses are not expected to exceed the government's estimate this summer of $170 billion over 10 years.
http://www.baltimoresun.com/business/sn ... ?track=rss

Uh...yeah...

So, if there is no way they will come close to exceeding the $400 Billion limit, then why remove the limit? :confused: Obviously, all is not what we are being told. Pacifying the masses may be socially necessary given the panic the truth would cause, but c'mon...some of us are actually paying attention. Add this to the fact that FDIC MUST tap their $500 Billion Fed credit line next year and it is clear that the worst is yet to come - and there is no way to postpone the inevitable forever. 2010 will be the year the Piper MUST be paid. The damage done by the Bush years cannot be postponed yet another year (nice try O, but the downside of following through on Bush's ill-contrived plan to "save the economy from collapse" this year means you will catch ALL the blame for what has simply been postponed - the fact that Bush caused this mess has already been forgotten and now it's just you standing in front of the mic while he is in Texas playing with his poodles) Where's all this money going to come from? Debt sales? Who's gonna buy this crappy debt? Hmmm...I wonder...

Who is Buying All These US Treasuries?

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.co ... uries.html
...almost no one but the Fed is buying Agency Debt...[and]"...Our concern now is that this is all starting to resemble one giant Ponzi scheme. We all know that the Fed has been active in the market for T-bills. As you can see from Table A, under the auspices of Quantitative Easing, they bought almost 50% of the new Treasury issues in Q2 and almost 30% in Q3. It serves to remember that the whole point of selling new US Treasury bonds is to attract outside capital to finance deficits or to pay off existing debts that are maturing. We are now in a situation, however, where the Fed is printing dollars to buy Treasuries as a means of faking the Treasury’s ability to attract outside capital. If our research proves anything, it’s that the regular buyers of US debt are no longer buying, and it amazes us that the US can successfully issue a record number Treasuries in this environment without the slightest hiccup in the market..."
Image

We should start a pool bet for WHEN California declares bankruptcy. They will be quickly followed by 40 other states who are in dire straits. Will it be possible for the States to go bankrupt, but not the US? Would it matter? No. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=711), many of these States will not have anywhere close to the revenues and cuts required to avoid the inevitable. IMHO, the Fed will have to print more money and give it to them to keep them on life support.

Yep! 2010-2011 is going to be a memorable year for the dollar. Just like the anthrax attacks, I look forward to reading about it in the Bangkok Post while sipping my iced tea and getting a massage on some beautiful remote island in Thailand (meh...or over breakfast at home with the wife). :lol:

Is Obama doing the right thing? IMHO, he has been trying to do the politically correct things which are at odds with the economically correct things. Allowing the economy to collapse in 2009, as painful as it would have been, would have been the better move. Instead, he chose to spend while the dollar still has value. From that perspective, I can understand WHY he's spending so much as fast as he can, but (despite the pacification of the masses) I know he must know that means the Piper will have to be paid in 2010-2011. There is no way creating more debt could ever be a solution for eliminating it.

Perhaps his strategy is to spend while there is value, put it on the US credit card, let inflation take hold, then pay it off with debased dollars. Who knows? Whatever happens...

The dollar must die. \:D/

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Texpat
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by Texpat » December 27, 2009, 2:28 pm


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KHONDAHM
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by KHONDAHM » December 27, 2009, 6:06 pm

Yep, Bush screwed us good. He out spent both Regan and Bush Sr., and turned Clinton's record surpluses into record deficits and let Wall St. run amuck leaving no choices for the next POTUS other than to let the economy collapse immediately or delay it.

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MALC
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by MALC » December 28, 2009, 7:12 am

it could be worse u could live in the uk. where brown just keeps giving our money to any country that wants it china alone gets 50 million a year off us in aid. alone. and they will be the richest country in the world in 2 -3 yrs. just read that 43 thousand 200 pensioners have died this year in uk from cold unable to pay for heating. but scum that come here that have not given a penny in taxes get free housing heating councill tax sky tv all free.

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Texpat
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by Texpat » December 28, 2009, 1:11 pm

Black man is delirious. See spending graphs three posts above.

O'Bummer frontloaded his 4-year term in the first few weeks in office. How much "help" have all the bailouts and stimulus and job creation provided? Look no further than the current state of the economy. But the lustful orgy was still in full gear in the early days of his presidency -- inner city women were sacrificing their newborns for the Messiah at the time. :D

What did the world expect from falling in love with a smooth-talking, first-term, Chicago community organizer who had no greater experience than bake sales and car washes?

Thankfully, the shiny, bright newness has worn very thin and he's now cast in the harsh light of day for the snake-oil salesman he really is. How's that hopey-changey working out for you, Khondahm?

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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by parrot » December 28, 2009, 8:24 pm

Guess we know who voted for Sarah~!!

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Texpat
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by Texpat » December 28, 2009, 11:09 pm

Still got some Hope in ya, Parrot?
Wait till next year, Hope will be DEEP in ya.

McCain was a supremely superior candidate. It's unfortunate he chose a nutter as his running mate -- but that's American politics -- that's democracy. EVERYONE chases the votes.

I'm convinced Obama didn't win on his merits. His opponent lost on that party's predecessor.

Having said all that, any eventual pres was in for an ass-rip. Obama should have NEVER bailed out any company. It merely perpetuates (and rewards) the behavior.

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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by Farang1 » December 31, 2009, 6:57 am

"I just realized how bad the economy really is. I recently bought a new toaster oven and as a complimentary gift, I was given a bank."








The quip earned Larry Legro of Sun Prairie, Wis., the dubious — but serious — distinction of being the year's World Champion Liar.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091230/ap_ ... top_liar_3

I thought it might be appropriate under the circumstances....

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KHONDAHM
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by KHONDAHM » January 1, 2010, 1:26 pm

From all the year-end info I am looking at, it looks like after March-April will be when the sh! starts hitting the fan again. The Fed and Treasury policies are just delaying the inevitable, which will ultimately make things worse:

Mortgage Bond Rally May End, Rates Rise as Fed Stops Purchases
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... kqYVzx6x3w
Mortgage bonds are poised to slump after a record rally as the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented buying of $1.25 trillion of the securities ends as soon as March, driving up interest rates on new home loans....The Fed began purchases in the $5.4 trillion market of securities guaranteed by government-supported Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac or federal agency Ginnie Mae in January, acquiring a net $1.1 trillion so far...The central bank stopped buying Treasuries in the last week of October...Obstacles to a recovery include 10 percent unemployment; expiring tax credits for buyers; as many as 10 million looming foreclosures...
3 reasons home prices are heading lower
http://money.cnn.com/2009/12/31/real_es ... rice_drop/
There are three main reasons...: a coming flood of foreclosures, rising interest rates and the eventual end of the tax credits [in April]...Moody's upped its estimate of defaults recently because of shortcomings of the government-led mortgage modification programs. Trial workouts are not being made permanent and completed modifications are redefaulting at high rates..."We've still only seen the tip of the foreclosure iceberg"...
...Ah, yes. The annual folly of perpetually raising the debt cap...

U.S. in fiscal peril with $12.1 trillion debt
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2 ... titialskip
The public debt...has soared from $5.8 trillion to $7.6 trillion this year alone — and is more than half the size of the nation's economy for the first time since 1956...Without action to reduce that unprecedented rise in red ink, lawmakers and experts say, Washington risks a fiscal crisis. The Congressional Budget Office projects annual interest on the public debt would be about $800 billion by 2019, but the Heritage Foundation...and other analysts estimate it could surpass $1 trillion by then. Foreign creditors could refuse to buy more Treasury securities...The public debt could be 61% of the economy next year, growing to 70% by 2013 and 85% by 2018..
...and there is my favorite guy, Peter Schiff, on that airhead filled CNBC show "Fast Money" which should get some sort of award for making bad calls. The smug nitwit panelists are perpetually hostile to Peter because time and time again markets prove him to be 100% correct and they end up being exposed as the farcical fools they pretend not to be. This is a taping fit for another highlight reel 2-3 years from now.

http://www.europac.net/Schiff-CNBC-12-22-09_lg_FLV.asp

One of many other highlight reels from over the years:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zdVP_sgC ... re=related

and a couple about the dollar

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZslOIIA ... re=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=42sk3Tsw ... re=related

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KHONDAHM
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by KHONDAHM » January 1, 2010, 1:57 pm

Here's the clip I was looking for when he made his debut on "Fast Money" 11/2008. Oh, how he was doubted right after the panel admitted he'd been spot on since forever. Note their smugness. Note the dollar index chart at 02:06 and gold chart at 05:10 and where they are now. :? His prediction of $2,000 /oz. in 2009 did not happen due to some policy changes and Central Bank manipulation (another topic) which has delayed such a move until 2010.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mlo8uvlw ... re=related

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UdonExpat
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by UdonExpat » January 2, 2010, 9:18 pm

Don't just complain about the problem. Do something about it!! Take your money away from the fat cat banking crooks who've put us in this fix. Too big to fail, f~ck them!!

http://moveyourmoney.info/

I've been using credit unions for more than 25 years, but small local banks can also be good places to keep your money.

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KHONDAHM
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by KHONDAHM » January 3, 2010, 3:16 am

UdonExpat wrote:Don't just complain about the problem. Do something about it!! Take your money away from the fat cat banking crooks who've put us in this fix. Too big to fail, f~ck them!!

http://moveyourmoney.info/

I've been using credit unions for more than 25 years, but small local banks can also be good places to keep your money.
Personally, I would love to see Americans revolt and give themselves a "bailout" by not paying taxes for a year. Everyone en masse. It is also not unthinkable that when inflation hits, many tax payers will be inflated into the higher tax brackets. Revisit this post in 2012. ;)

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KHONDAHM
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by KHONDAHM » January 5, 2010, 4:54 am

Fifteen local banks under regulatory scrutiny for problems

http://www.philly.com/philly/business/80521577.html

The financial crisis was averted, they say. Oh, really?
Experts characterized the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s closure of 140 banks across the country last year as a warm-up for the agency, whose board last month authorized a 55 percent increase in the FDIC budget and a 23 percent increase in staffing to 8,653.

This year, "on a conservative basis, you're going to have two, three, four times" last year's total of bank seizures, said Charles Wendel, founder of Financial Institutions Consulting Inc., of Ridgefield, Conn.

The FDIC's starting point is a list of problem institutions, which contained 552 banks at the end of the third quarter, up from 171 a year earlier.
The article goes on to discuss Philadelphia area banks. What is important here is the glaring fact that the FDIC has been waiting until the 11th hour + 59 minutes to close the banks they closed in 2009. If they enforced their closure policies as they have over the past 20 or so years, every single one of the 552 banks would have been closed already. They haven't done it yet because it is logistically impossible AND they don't have the funds (excepting the $500 billion Fed line of credit). Think about this when you listen to the talking heads and their unfounded optimism for a recovery in 2010.

Cheers! :-"

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KHONDAHM
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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by KHONDAHM » January 17, 2010, 2:08 am

The chart to remember in 2010-2012

Image

These are the wave of mortgage rate resets. Those 3-5 year ARMs taken out at the height of the bubble. Recall from my prior post that the already broke FDIC is staffing up, about to tap their line of credit with the Fed. and the Fannie and Fredie limits were quietly removed on a cold and dark Christmas Eve when all in Whoville, USA were sleeping. This chart is why. Despite the happy face being painted on the "recovered/ing" financial markets, all is very much NOT well in Whoville. When those rates reset this year and next, there will be a cascade affect from the surge in defaults that will see hundreds of banks go under and the current simmering dollar crisis will erupt like a volcano (albeit with a happy face on it).

Oh, and this doesn't even include the coming surge in commercial loan defaults.

Be prepared, and hug cash at your own peril.

Cheers!

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Re: Die Dollar! Die!

Post by WBU ALUM » January 17, 2010, 7:21 am

Your analysis is correct, KHONDAHM.

I have not seen one thing fixed regarding banks and the problems that caused the meltdown at the end of '08. Another dip and/or downward spike is almost inevitable.

The markets don't appear to be safe. Banks don't appear to be safe. The dollar is still extremely weak. Then I read today that there is a move underway to force those with IRAs and 401Ks to put their funds into government debt. Storm is brewing.

I wonder who will be blamed this time. :lol:

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