Baht What up with Dat?????

Post by **bumper** » March 19, 2015, 5:12 pm

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/politic ... -20-others

a good example of what else you will see in the book.

Post by **bumper** » March 24, 2015, 9:49 am

Well the FED made sure I won't see my 33 this month.

Even more reason to finish reading my book again this is all a paper Lyon. It's interesting the three chapters in and I already know I can no post my finding on here. The kindest way to say it history is repeating itself. Is it going to lea to the same result time will tell

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asia/50 ... -rate-talk

Post by **Twixies** » March 24, 2015, 11:14 am

bumper wrote:Well the FED made sure I won't see my 33 this month.

Even more reason to finish reading my book again this is all a paper Lyon. It's interesting the three chapters in and I already know I can no post my finding on here. The kindest way to say it history is repeating itself. Is it going to lea to the same result time will tell

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asia/50 ... -rate-talk

I'm agree with you. I had also reading a book about it.

The big problem for thailand right now is the peg to the dollar. The currency is to strong against the export markets and make them left behind malaisia, Vietnam.
The main export marked for thailand is China. China is right now on a way with slowdown in the economy. A analyst predict this for some time ago almost 2 years, and The Forbes analyst even say thailand's Bubble Economy Is Heading For A 1997-Style.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolomb ... yle-crash/
Right now is thailand tumbling with slow export(Chinas slowdowns), consumer problems( high debs, low world price on rice, rubber and properly sucker now, because of a good harvest in Brazil this year. And so on)
The electronic factories are moving out of thailand, car factories moving and shut down in Thailand.

Right now I cant see I good future for Thailands economy , because of more competition from other countries, the slowdown, the high debs, the rice and so on.

We can only hope the government is starting to invest all the money they talking about

Post by **BigBubba** » March 24, 2015, 1:36 pm

I'm going back to America next month. Is it better to buy dollars here, or take baht with me and change it there? Thanks.

Post by **semperfiguy** » March 24, 2015, 3:59 pm

BigBubba wrote:I'm going back to America next month. Is it better to buy dollars here, or take baht with me and change it there? Thanks.

Bubba, I could be wrong but I don't think you'll be able to exchange it back in the States. I don't recall ever seeing an exchange station in any US airports like you see here in Thailand. If you could I doubt very seriously if you'll get a better rate than you could here.

Post by **bumper** » March 25, 2015, 11:31 am

As a norm this is primarily about stocks. But, that is a part of the economy. This particular one is unusual as he calls it a rant. But, he does bring up some key points and certainly worth a read.

http://thaicapitalist.com/2015/03/comme ... or-a-rant/

Post by **JimboPSM** » March 26, 2015, 11:44 am

While I was aware of a number of US Dollar Indexes I had assumed from looking at the charts that they were almost identical, on closer inspection that proves not to be correct.

There are three main US Dollar Indexes that the Fed produces:

1. DTWEXM – Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies
A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that circulate widely outside the country of issue.
Major currencies index includes the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden.

2. DTWEXB – Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad
A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of a broad group of major U.S. trading partners.
Broad currency index includes the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, Mexico, China, United Kingdom, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Switzerland, Thailand, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Sweden, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia.

3. DTWEXO – Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Other Important Trading Partners
A weighted average of the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar against a subset of the broad index currencies that do not circulate widely outside the country of issue.
Countries whose currencies are included in the other important trading partners index are Mexico, China, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia.

For those that are really interested (or suffer from insomnia) here is an article published by the Fed back in 2005 on “Indexes of the Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar”:
- http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bull ... _index.pdf

The comments that I have made previously were on the basis of data from DTWEXM and while I believe that they are still valid, when you also look at DTWEXB and DTWEXO, it could certainly be argued that some aspects should have been toned down a bit.

I continue to be of the opinion that the change in the value of the US Dollar is better reflected by DTWEXM, but others should be aware of the differences between the indexes before making up their own minds.

This chart shows the difference between those indexes since 30 June 2014:

Post by **Twixies** » March 26, 2015, 11:46 am

Thailand’s Teflon Economy Finally Seems to Be Cracking

Good article about the economy in thailand

http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2015/03/23/th ... -cracking/

Post by **bumper** » March 27, 2015, 11:25 am

Twixies wrote:Thailand’s Teflon Economy Finally Seems to Be Cracking

Good article about the economy in thailand

http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2015/03/23/th ... -cracking/

One would be hard pressed to argue with the article. One should be very careful as to what is said about the Military here. All the tings mentioned within the report are in the book Thailand Boom to Bust. Nothing much has changed really just different names amongst the players. Foreign money has been driving the economy here for years. It's not out of the goodness of their hearts, fortunes have been made.

We have seen the Boom for years now, if history repeats itself and it usually does. The Bust is next. If you look at the period to 1997 Thailand was really booming. Why cheap labor. Industry was created and pushed along with that cheap labor. Some became very wealthy.

What has changed, not much skilled labor is not readily available, if someone truly has skills they take them to other markets where they can earn much better wages.

The language of international commerce will not be Thai, why is it with English being a mandatory subject that Thai's don't place higher?

Really simple those teaching them don't speak English.

The Current P.M. seems to be being pushed a lot lately. From what I can see he is not someone to push. he will stand his ground. I look for more conflict not less.

Articles of recent such as bombs being found in Hua Hin before a large meeting. along with many others. I believe have two possible sources here, not real bit supportive of the current position of the Government. Or it's Real and we are still sitting on a powder Keg. I tend to believe the later. They are still very powerful entities here that only want things their way. They don't seem to care much about who they hurt in the process of obtaining the goals.

It's very hard to read the actual state of he economy here, as you get numbers they wish for not what they can really achieve. One min. everything is rosy the next the sky is falling. So which do you believe?

You can find ways of supporting your position no matter which you believe.

Jimbo I enjoy your charts I prefer to stay with one. easier to gauge change with just one. I had to learn learn charting when I was investing. gives a good idea of where things should be and a probable outcome. But as you know you can not discount what is happening around you.

Unless Japan steps up with some very serious money for the infrastructure projects. The alternative is China and some very high interest rates.

In 1997 America funded the bail out, here is a surprise none of the principle for that loan has been paid back, interest only payments for how long now? It's possible I'm wrong. But, that is my understanding.

The growth since then has been based on foreign money, think about brokers recommending Thai's to invest out side the Country. That money we have seen for growth here will go to the best place for a return. Not so sure Thailand is the best place these days.

If I believed we have seen the bottom for Thailand, The set fell below 1500 yesterday I know of good stocks. I would be buying. Right now I believe the best thing short term for me is to just leave my money in dollars. If the FED every gets around to making it's move on interest rates they will gain value. Am I right heck I don't know I will tell you in a couple of years.

Post by **bumper** » March 27, 2015, 4:48 pm

The Generals push becomes much easier to understand with this article. I was going to comment on this. Better thought hit me and said don't say anything.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/812 ... paign=news

Post by **noosard** » March 27, 2015, 5:18 pm

Spent some time reading said article and tvs comments
Must rememeber as pointed out it is someone's opinion not the generals
My opinion is the country is in deep water with out a paddle
and it might be shet creek
time will tell

Post by **JimboPSM** » March 28, 2015, 11:30 am

bumper wrote:... Jimbo I enjoy your charts I prefer to stay with one. easier to gauge change with just one...

I believe you are referring to my recent chart showing two additional US Dollar Indexes

My intention was to point out that my previous posts referencing the US Dollar Index (DTWEXM) could be viewed by some as misleading so I added the other two indexes (DTWEXB & DTWEXO) on to the chart along with descriptions for all of them so that folk would be in a better position to judge for themselves to what degree the Baht may be overvalued.

If the differences between the three US Dollar Indexes had been immaterial I would probably have just given them a pass (too much information can be as bad as too little information), but the differences over the last eight months were too significant to ignore (the highest being over 100% larger than the lowest).

However, irrespective of their differences they all show essentially the same story, the only differences is the degree to which they show it.

What is still clear from all of them is that the value of the Baht has been broadly pegged to the US Dollar since July 2014.

As I have said before, the value of the Baht should be at the top of the current agendas for the NCPO and the NACC – I include the NACC because some of the probable causes of the overvaluation of the Baht should be of great concern to them.

Note: my intent on the financial threads is to provide objective information, when I discovered there were material differences between the Dollar Indexes it became necessary to disclose and show them; having now done so I will return to using DTWEXM.

Post by **bumper** » March 28, 2015, 6:10 pm

Thanks for the explanation Jimbo, I understood in the end they all go to the same place, to one degree or another. Not reflected in the current baht rate.

Yes looks like a creek no paddle. The scary things we could have said since the first posting on here, somehow it survives intact.

Well the article said a lot of things that might be implied by actions.

Here is one to figure out Japan supporting the rail plan, they got money these days?

Pick any day and you can find conflicting stories about the economy. One day self sufficient, next exports ,then of course Tourist. Up 16% compared to last year same quarter. Russia slowing down a lot, must be the Chinese.

Post by **JimboPSM** » March 30, 2015, 8:15 am

bumper wrote:... Here is one to figure out Japan supporting the rail plan, they got money these days?

With regard to the rail plan it is interesting to note by way of comparison that last week in the UK, Lord Hollick (Chairman of the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee) said: “At £50bn HS2 [High Speed Rail] will be one of the most expensive infrastructure projects ever undertaken in the UK but the Government have not yet made a convincing case for why it is necessary [Translation: a waste of taxpayer money]...”

http://www.parliament.uk/business/commi ... s-release/

Sadly, while improving rail links is pretty well a no-brainer in improving the infrastructure of many countries, in all too many (like the UK) plans have gone way past economically justifiable rail improvements into the currently fashionable crony capitalist get richer even quicker scam of peddling impractical and uneconomically justifiable High Speed Rail.

Post by **JimboPSM** » March 30, 2015, 8:24 am

bumper wrote:... Pick any day and you can find conflicting stories about the economy. One day self sufficient, next exports, then of course Tourist. Up 16% compared to last year same quarter. Russia slowing down a lot, must be the Chinese.

While I agree that there are conflicting stories about the economy in the media, I would go further and say that some appear to be wilfully misleading (with some even bordering on the delusional).

While I believe that it is appropriate for governments to talk up their figures to a reasonable degree (as oppositions are always happy to talk them down), for credibility it needs to be done so within the realms of the possible.

Those who have followed the articles on the Thai economy in the media over the last few years and have taken notice of what is actually happening around Thailand should be more than well aware of their shortcomings in accuracy.

With their history over the last few years of not only missing their forecasts, but then missing their revised forecasts it has become increasingly difficult to take economic pronouncements from the financial authorities in Thailand seriously.

I do wonder if any of them ever undertake rigorous analyses of the forecasts and the underlying assumptions that were used in them to try and learn why they have not only been repeatedly wrong, but repeatedly wrong on the downside?

Here are a few articles from the last couple of weeks about the economy that give a flavour of how far removed from economic reality the financial authorities have been and continue to be and, sadly, how little they have learnt from their very poor history of forecasting.

Bangkok Post 19 March
NESDB: Q1 growth over 3%
- Thailand's economy is expected to grow more than 3% in the first quarter, driven by recovering tourism and private consumption as well as accelerated government expenditure, says the government's planning agency.....
  
  Full article: http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/tel ... wth-over-3
Bangkok Post 20 March
Central bank cuts GDP forecast to 3.8%
- The Bank of Thailand has revised down its 2015 gross domestic product growth forecast to 3.8% from 4% while keeping the 2016 figure at 3.9%.....
  
  Full article: http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... ast-to-3-8
Bangkok Post 20 March
Prayut airs concerns on exports and economy
- Weak and vulnerable exports, including a cloudy outlook for Thai fishery products in Europe, have become a major concern, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha admitted on Friday.
  
  Speaking on his weekly "Returning Happiness to Thai People" programme, Gen Prayut said his government was monitoring global economic conditions closely, and acknowledged prolonged problems in major trading partners including China and Japan...
  
  Full article: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/general ... xport-push
Bangkok Post 26 March
Exports earn less as baht appreciates
- The value of Thai exports fell 6.14% year-on-year in February to UScopy7.23 billion and dropped 4.82% in the first two months of 2015 to $34.48 billion, the Commerce Ministry announced on Thursday.
  
  Full article: http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... ppreciates
Bangkok Post 27 March
Exports continue to flatline, analysts downgrade outlook
- Exports are expected to continue floundering in the coming months due largely to the slow economic recovery in major export markets and lower global oil and farm prices.
  
  Full article: http://www.bangkokpost.com/business/new ... de-outlook

The noticeable common thread in the articles to me is not so much what they say, but what they omit to say, there is precious little comment on and no critical thinking analysis of the impact of the rapid appreciation of the Baht since July 2014 on the performance of the Thai economy.

Pretty well anything and everything has been blamed for the continuing poor performance of the Thai economy.

While the appreciation of the Baht does get mentioned (it is even in the headline of one article) its impact is not analysed and quantified.

One has to wonder why, when the performance of the Thai economy is so dependent on exports and tourism, that a constructive discussion of its value and its impact on the economy is avoided like the plague?

This is particularly strange when one considers that the movement (or to be more precise, the lack of movement) in the value of the Baht against the US Dollar since July 2014 is so at odds with the relative performance of the Thai economy with that of the US economy.

Post by **bumper** » March 30, 2015, 11:04 am

https://us-mg6.mail.yahoo.com/neo/launc ... 9501392005

Excellent insight into what Jimbo Posted, read through what happened last week, after that it goes to individual stocks.

After digesting all that tell me why "THB appreciates 4.4% from August last year – The BoT reports that the slowing global economy has pushed the real value of baht to appreciate 4.4% from August last year. (Post Today, 23/3/15)"

After reading this and Jimbo's posting where is the strength in the economy to warrant a more valuable currency?

Post by **JimboPSM** » March 30, 2015, 6:55 pm

bumper wrote: https://us-mg6.mail.yahoo.com/neo/launc ... 9501392005

Excellent insight into what Jimbo Posted, read through what happened last week, after that it goes to individual stocks...

Unfortunately that link takes me to a Yahoo Mail login page not to a news article, tried it a few times and I keep getting same result

Post by **Twixies** » March 31, 2015, 8:43 am

JimboPSM wrote:
bumper wrote: https://us-mg6.mail.yahoo.com/neo/launc ... 9501392005

Excellent insight into what Jimbo Posted, read through what happened last week, after that it goes to individual stocks...
Unfortunately that link takes me to a Yahoo Mail login page not to a news article, tried it a few times and I keep getting same result

Hey Jimbo. I think bumper is talking about this link http://thaicapitalist.com/2015/03/what- ... 2303-2703/

Post by **bumper** » March 31, 2015, 12:18 pm

Yes that is it, there are two other areas I think you can find form that link. Beyond those three area it;s about individual stocks.

I'm not investing at the moment. But, you tend to get more accurate information from this site. A non sugar coated version of the Economy.

I'm still trying to figure out what the g goal was for the BOT to change rates, thus far doesn't seem to ,make any difference.

Beyond the first few days, business a usual. Dollar went up today and so did the baht

VERY STRANGE

Post by **bumper** » March 31, 2015, 12:56 pm

F.M, says they will not promote household spending since it's currently at 80% of GDP.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/busines ... 57081.html