US Presidential election odds

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Whistler
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US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » March 11, 2020, 11:32 am

I have long been of the view that betting agents get it right most of the time and have been watching the US Presidential race from that viewpoint. A few months ago, Trump was unbackable at around $1.40 (AUD). Three weeks ago he was at $1.50, then yesterday $1..67, at time of posting he is $1.80 and Biden $2.10.

I will keep this thread up to date every Wednesday for those who share my view on the accuracy of the bookies.

Mar 04 Trump $1.50 Biden $3.50
Mar 11 Trump $1.80 Biden $2.10


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GT93
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by GT93 » March 11, 2020, 11:42 am

555 good idea. From memory I thought there were a couple of elections in the last few years where the bookies had it seriously wrong? For example did they pick the Aussie result?

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » March 11, 2020, 12:21 pm

On the March 2019 election, they could not pick a winner, they slightly favoured labor but also saw there may be a hung parliament, overall they were pretty close with the coalition winning by a thin margin. The wild card was the informal and the pre-election votes that were lodged weeks before the election, nearly 30% of votes if memory served my right.

I was a scrutineer for the pre-poll centre and have never seen so many informal votes in any previous election. In the Roberston division it was over 7%

The US election is under totally different rules, particularly that of the Presidential election.

The variable that are hard to track is participation rates and state by state distribution. Remember Hillary got more votes than Trump but failed in key states.

The parallels between the two elections, US 2016 and Australia 2019? In both cases the progressive parties ran with dud candidates and alienated their own base. (I would say the same for the conservatives ones that won as well....55)
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by GT93 » March 11, 2020, 1:37 pm

What were the bookies paying just before the last American presidential election?

The scandalous election not won fair and squarely because of Putin. :lol:

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » March 11, 2020, 1:46 pm

GT93 wrote:
March 11, 2020, 1:37 pm
What were the bookies paying just before the last American presidential election?

The scandalous election not won fair and squarely because of Putin. :lol:
https://www.smh.com.au/business/electio ... sm0we.html
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by noosard » March 11, 2020, 4:58 pm

Bookies wouldnt of had money on Jacinda amonth before the elections or a day after
Good old boy Peter sure stuck a finger in the pie

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » March 18, 2020, 8:50 am

Mar 04 Trump $1.50 Biden $3.50
Mar 11 Trump $1.80 Biden $2.10
Mar 18 Trump $2:00 Biden $2.00
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by sometimewoodworker » March 18, 2020, 12:23 pm

Whistler wrote:
March 18, 2020, 8:50 am
Mar 04 Trump $1.50 Biden $3.50
Mar 11 Trump $1.80 Biden $2.10
Mar 18 Trump $2:00 Biden $2.00
For those of us who have no idea what the above figures represent would you like to translate them into percentage chances of a win? Or even into English?

From what I remember from a university professor a few months ago who had a remarkable track record of predicting presidential winners (9 out of 10) he was sure that at that time tRump was unbeatable, the only thing, he said, that was likely to have a chance to change that would be a recession or stock market collapse, so now both of those are racing certainties predicting a winner is less clear.
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » March 18, 2020, 12:59 pm

Sure, this is the return for a $1 bet. I also saw that interview, he had I think 12 criteria, and said it needed 6 to be bad. Two were long term economy and short term economy, one was strength of party support which at the time of his interview were all negative against the Dems. It's kinda swung around now as I expect the party to unite strongly behind Biden. At the moment, Will the moderate Republicans turn on Trump? I don't think so, but if there is any break in the ranks, there is no chance IMHO that he can beet JB.

We all know what the game changer is, so far Trump seems to have been +90% idiot in dealing with it, has grasped the nettle now, but still looks vulnerable.
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by anefarious1 » March 18, 2020, 1:27 pm

If everyone just watched this video Trump will lose in a landslide

https://youtu.be/aahfurgtDtE

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by stattointhailand » March 18, 2020, 1:57 pm

Is calling what Trump does "scandalous" in the UK parliament "interfering in the US election" ? :lol:

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Giggle » March 18, 2020, 3:36 pm

Trump will be re-elected and Udon's American Political Pundits will look stupid ... again. Yes, all of you.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by sometimewoodworker » March 18, 2020, 3:37 pm

anefarious1 wrote:
March 18, 2020, 1:27 pm
If everyone just watched this video Trump will lose in a landslide

And this
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » March 18, 2020, 5:45 pm

I disagree, before he was elected, Trump had already declared he could shoot somebody on the street and still win in 2016.

The build up from neocons, things like the Tea Party etc heralded a huge shift to the Right in the USA. Truth gave way to spin doctoring, Murdoch commanded the rhetoric through his Fox network and almost legitimised the loony right wing, scaremongering ratbags that ran sites like info-wars etc. The blue collar Americans welded their support to the Right wing under the Make America Great again banner. Trump delivered on massive corporate tax cuts, so he is immensely popular with Republicans. Unemployment was moving down at a healthy clip in Obama's second term, as was the recovery from the GFC, Trump inherited a country experiencing an economic recovery

Now the US economy resembles a massive Ponzi scheme. The government runs up debt at an unsustainable rate, income losses from the massive corporate tax reductions gave a short term lift in profits, but a long term shortfall in government revenue, disguised to an extent by growth. If growth slows or a major recession hits, the scheme will collapse.

Enter Covit 19.

American's don't give a ---- about Trumps lies, they elected him as a proven liar in 2016, his first major lie upon assuming office, was his inauguration crowd size, but his supporters could not care less. It is not Trump's lies that will bring him down, it will be the fallout from Covit 19 that will expose the brittleness of the US economy.

US interest rates will have to go up to attract capital to keep the economy afloat, this will lead to business failures, mortgage foreclosures and massive unemployment.

Short term, he looked like he had some wins, long term the man is a disaster on two legs.
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by jackspratt » March 18, 2020, 7:08 pm

Giggle wrote:
March 18, 2020, 3:36 pm
Trump will be re-elected and Udon's American Political Pundits will look stupid ... again. Yes, all of you.
You are probably right, giggly ...... which will give "Udon's American Political Pundits" another 4 years of being able to point out how thick, hick and hypocritical almost half the US population (including you) are. :?

We can all have a good giggle, eh?

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by stattointhailand » March 18, 2020, 7:26 pm

all that proves is that for nearly half the US population Ignorance actually IS bliss

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Giggle » March 18, 2020, 11:29 pm

No, it means you have no idea what you're talking about. Ever consider that it's YOU who is wrongheaded, jingoistic and ignorant. Nah, didn't think so. But all your bluster about the president will be proven garbage when Americans vote to keep him in office. Wiggle, worms.

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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by jackspratt » March 19, 2020, 11:06 am


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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by Whistler » March 19, 2020, 11:50 am

Jack, trolls need feeding, lets starve them from the attention they are seeking by simply ignoring them.
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Re: US Presidential election odds

Post by jackspratt » March 20, 2020, 1:05 pm

Fox News again proving it is "fair and balanced" - by swinging 180 degrees, without a hint of shame. :D


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