ClimateGate busts things wide open

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by WBU ALUM » February 5, 2010, 10:24 pm

rjj04 wrote: if the deniers go on as they are, using anything but science to get there way ... the critical reasoning skills of most people have not improved one iota ... critical reasoning takes a back-seat to shenanigans ... aggressive Neanderthals ... political race ... irrational argumentation methods ... joke. =;
Some folks just can't get past insulting remarks. 8)



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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by WBU ALUM » February 6, 2010, 4:43 am

US Senator calls for head of UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to step down.
Recent news reports have highlighted Dr. Rajendra Pachauri’s and the United Nation’s involvement in covering up flawed science:

* February 2, 2010, Investor’s Business Daily article, Walter Russell Read, Project Director for Religion and Foreign Policy at the Pew Forum, said “After years in which global warming activists had lectured everyone about the overwhelming nature of the scientific evidence, it turned out that the most prestigious agencies in the global warming movement were breaking laws, hiding data and making inflated, bogus claims resting on, in some cases, no scientific basis at all.”

* On January 30, 2010, the Times of London reported, “Pachauri was told that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment that glaciers would disappear by 2035 was wrong, but he waited two months to correct it.”

* On January 24, 2010, the Times of London reported the UN wrongly linked global warming to natural disasters. Reporter Jonathan Leake wrote, “The United Nations climate panel faces new controversy for wrongly linking global warming to an increase in the number and severity of natural disasters such as hurricanes and floods,” and the report “had not been subjected to routine scientific scrutiny.”
Barrasso Calls for U.N. Climate Chief’s Resignation

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by WBU ALUM » February 6, 2010, 5:13 am

Wow! Even the UN climate chief is resorting to insults and name-calling!
The U.N.'s climate chief dismissed "nefarious" global warming skeptics this week by insinuating that they are deep in the pockets of big business -- and suggested that they go rub their faces in cancer-causing asbestos.
U.N. Climate Chief: Critics Should Rub Their Faces With Asbestos

rrjjo4, have you been talking with this guy about how to curb all this ClimateGate talk? You rascal. :lol:

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by ronan01 » February 6, 2010, 8:25 am

Simple question Jack - what works of Prof Plimer have you read. Just shows your style - answer a question with a question - especially when you dont have an intelligent response

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by jackspratt » February 6, 2010, 8:46 am

ronan01 wrote:Simple question Jack - what works of Prof Plimer have you read. Just shows your style - answer a question with a question - especially when you dont have an intelligent response
As a geologist - as I have no interest in geology, nothing.

As a climate denier - enough to know that he has very little credibility, and has been caught out lying on a number of occasions.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by ronan01 » February 6, 2010, 5:07 pm

Jack - 2 simple questions

- have you read any of his works?

- precisely what did he lie about? provide 1 example

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by jackspratt » February 6, 2010, 5:56 pm

ronan01 wrote:Jack - 2 simple questions

- have you read any of his works?

- precisely what did he lie about? provide 1 example
There is no point in my reading Plimers works, even if I was so inclined. I am not, and have never claimed to be a scientist. However, I have read enough of what others (who are qualified) have said to stand by my opinion that he has no credibility on the subject of climate change.

As to lies - did you watch the ABC interview that I linked to? As far as I am concerned, if you make a claim (volcanoes and CO2) that is demonstrably incorrect, and you refuse to correct that claim despite numerous opportunities to do so, what may have initially been an incorrect statement becomes a lie.

Another one - look here:

http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2009/05 ... urce_o.php

And you you want further analysis of his earth shattering (no pun intended) book Heaven + Earth, look here:

http://bravenewclimate.files.wordpress. ... mer2a0.pdf

Having previously tried to patronise me, you now seem to be trying to cast doubts on whether I am entitled or qualified to have an opinion on this subject.

Perhaps it is time for you to reveal your credentials :D

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by ronan01 » February 6, 2010, 6:07 pm

Degree Civil Eng, MBA, Dip Project Management. Lesser qualifications in "modelling".

Design, develop and operate complex mathematical models to forecast the future state of complex structures and assets.

Civil Eng - part of study touches on geloogy, hydrology, hydraulics - trained to understand various cycles i.e the nitrogen cycle, water cycle.

Models - which raises the question - why have they not run the IPCC model backwards?, standard operating procedure for "modelling", if it wont run backwards how can you trust what it is projecting forward!! I think the

You are enttled to an opinion on the subject - but you seem sensitive to being patronised and have others cast doubts on your viewpoint - but that is what you do to others.

Your fallback position is "peer review and the majority of scientists agree" arguemet. Not an arguement really111

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by jackspratt » February 6, 2010, 6:34 pm

ronan01 wrote: You are enttled to an opinion on the subject - but you seem sensitive to being patronised and have others cast doubts on your viewpoint - but that is what you do to others.

Your fallback position is "peer review and the majority of scientists agree" arguemet. Not an arguement really111
Your qualifications are impressive, and I respect that.

I am not sure where I have patronised anyone on this thread, and I certainly understand that others are entitled to cast doubts on my viewpoint. The point I have consistently tried to make is that people have put Monckton and Plimer up as credible proponents of climate change denial, when in my opinion they are not. And I have tried to show why not.

If peer review, and the views of the overwhelming majority of scientists (and their peak bodies) cannot be accepted, you seem to be advocating turning one of the cornerstones of science on its head. That is very bold.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by ronan01 » February 6, 2010, 8:58 pm

Making data available to allow others to independently replicate the experiment, and testing the "output" of an algorithm by "running it backwards" are the cornerstones of science - neither appears to have been done with AGW theory. I wonder why?

I suspect it is because there are too many many variables involved - it becomes too complex because the relationship between the individual variables are not fully understood, let alone replicared as a mathematical model.

It boils down to "predicting the future" - and that is always probelmatic at best. There is a tendency to believe that more information about more variables will provide better output - if we "know" everything about the past we can "accurately" predict the future (maybe). I am not certain we know everything about the past and on that basis need to be cautious about "predicting" the future.

And that is what bothers me. Because anybody who raises any doubt or questions the dogma is branded a "denier", and this branding usually done by those who believe that their position is the only correct one. And that, in my opinion, is the most un-scientific position possible. To question a theory does not make somebody a "denier" - to label them so is to denigrate them.

Most advances are made as a result of questioning minds cahllenging dogma and seeking improvement to existing knowledge.

The position of the AGW "believers" is to shut down any legimate questioning by denigration. Their position is that they are the "peak of understanding" and shall not be challenged in any manner.

It is a form of taxi cab logic - it is like declaring you have arrived at your chosen destination, feel no need to go any further, and as a result, dismass the cab - it is no longer required. My position is the cab has a full tank of fuel and an open road ahead - I would prefer to push along and see what can be found (even if there is risk involved). Far better than staying put and saying "this is the best place, so go no further".

Your point is not simply based on Moncton or Plimer being not credible - the basic point that comes across from you is that AGW is "real" and anybody who does not accept that is deficient and is to be labelled a "denier".

If the viewpoint of "believers" went unchallenged in history we would still be sitting in caves freezing in the dark.

The objective of "believers" is to shut down debate, to denigrate and ensure the dogma that makes them comfortable remains unchallenged - objectives that are not democratic, scientific or civilised.

Debate is good, and alternative viewpoints are good also - it sharpens the debate and reveals "fact"

Shutting down debate via propoganda, denigration and the repitition of mindless mantra (peer review / majority of scientists) is not so good for obvious reasons. Nobody has canvassed the "majority of scientists" and so do not know what the majority of scientists think. In science, as in politics, there is the silent majority - and these views are often not represented by peak bodies. Peak bodies are also organisations subject to human whim and fancy and ..... politics ..... the politics that ensures a particular view (of a minority) is presented as the view of the majority, butis often only the opinion of the "committee". Committees are reknowned for pushing minority opinions as fact.

I hope there will always be some who challenge the dogma and seek proof before "believing". "Believers" do not have a monoploy on knowledge on this subject - I think they need to be a little less patronising, or else toughen up and not be offended when others treat them in a similar manner.

Understanding the past is extremely difficult, predicting the future nigh on impossible. "Believers" need to be a little less senstive to those who question their belief in future outcomes - they dont know anthing more than anybody esle about what the future holds - and neither do the majority of scientists and their peak bodies.

Using mantras to stiffle debate is bold. And dangerous.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by WBU ALUM » February 6, 2010, 11:17 pm

Very well said, ronan01. =D>

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by WBU ALUM » February 7, 2010, 12:44 am

Collapse ... a good way to put it.

The great global warming collapse
By exaggerating the certainties, papering over the gaps, demonizing the skeptics and peddling tales of imminent catastrophe, they've discredited the entire climate-change movement. The political damage will be severe.
In short, they've ruined their own argument.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by rick » February 7, 2010, 5:40 am

There is one problem with Global warming. You can formulate theories, input some variables (but there are possibly thousands), but you cannot test the entire idea with an experiment in the lab. It can only be tested on a massive scale - it is being tested now, but using our own entire planet. problem is, by the time we get certain results from this experiment, the planet could be a very different place, possibly with the majority of current life becoming extinct. Hence it would be better to work it out in advance.

IF THE PREDICTIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING ARE CORRECT - we have about 30 years or so before some predicted feedback mechanisms kick in (may already be happening) and temperatures could go up considerably - no-one really knows how much, but 8 degrees centigrade is one figure suggested. This might sound like a lot, but remember that global warming already provides us with 30 degrees centigrade of warming from the current levels of grreenhouse gases - without it life on this planet would hardly exist. Eight degrees warmer would make half the planet practically uninhabitable, ignoring any other affects like droughts, floods, hurricanes wars etc. Ok, we will not be around to worry about it, but our grandchildren will be.

That is why it would be selfish and foolish to dismiss it. There are also other benefits - oil and gas will not last for ever, we do need alternatives.

The problems with the data available is the sheer quantity, and the fact you need data from years of results to make a prediction. Scientists are human (I know some of you doubt that!) - they can be lazy, careless, incompetent just like anyone else; and with so much data, the chances are that some of it will be left out and some of it will be incorrect. therefore sometimes the results can be questioned. However, you have to ask yourself, can 90% of scientists be wrong most of the time? If it was true, we would not see much scientific progress.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by WBU ALUM » February 7, 2010, 6:39 am

rick wrote:IF THE PREDICTIONS OF GLOBAL WARMING ARE CORRECT - we have about 30 years or so before some predicted feedback mechanisms kick in (may already be happening) and temperatures could go up considerably - no-one really knows how much, but 8 degrees centigrade is one figure suggested. This might sound like a lot, but remember that global warming already provides us with 30 degrees centigrade of warming from the current levels of grreenhouse gases - without it life on this planet would hardly exist. Eight degrees warmer would make half the planet practically uninhabitable, ignoring any other affects like droughts, floods, hurricanes wars etc. Ok, we will not be around to worry about it, but our grandchildren will be.

That is why it would be selfish and foolish to dismiss it. There are also other benefits - oil and gas will not last for ever, we do need alternatives.
I respect your thoughts on this, rick, but I prefer to look at it as cautious and thoughtful, not selfish and foolish. No one wants the earth and its population to suffer, but everyone does want truth and openness.

What about all the global cooling hysteria? Thirty years and more have passed since the several times that cooling hoopla surfaced. And here we are. Another Ice Age hasn't occurred. That makes it very difficult to believe the global warming hysteria. Add ClimateGate lies and skewing and lost data and silencing of dissent, and it is even more unbelievable for cautious and thoughtful people. They think global warming is foolish.

Lastly, there is nothing to replace oil and gas at the present time in as efficient a manner. Someone better get really busy on that because cautious and thoughtful people aren't going to buy into this idea if they have to go back to bicycles, horses and buggies. They think global warming is foolish.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by Laan Yaa Mo » February 7, 2010, 6:55 am

This seemingly sensible article is just in from Margaret Wente of Toronto's Globe and Mail:

Margaret Wente

Published on Friday, Feb. 05, 2010 6:45PM EST

Last updated on Saturday, Feb. 06, 2010 4:15AM EST


In 2007, the most comprehensive report to date on global warming, issued by the respected United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, made a shocking claim: The Himalayan glaciers could melt away as soon as 2035.

These glaciers provide the headwaters for Asia's nine largest rivers and lifelines for the more than one billion people who live downstream. Melting ice and snow would create mass flooding, followed by mass drought. The glacier story was reported around the world. Last December, a spokesman for the World Wildlife Fund, an environmental pressure group, warned, “The deal reached at Copenhagen will have huge ramifications for the lives of hundreds of millions of people who are already highly vulnerable due to widespread poverty.” To dramatize their country's plight, Nepal's top politicians strapped on oxygen tanks and held a cabinet meeting on Mount Everest.

But the claim was rubbish, and the world's top glaciologists knew it. It was based not on rigorously peer-reviewed science but on an anecdotal report by the WWF itself. When its background came to light on the eve of Copenhagen, Rajendra Pachauri, the head of the IPCC, shrugged it off. But now, even leading scientists and environmental groups admit the IPCC is facing a crisis of credibility that makes the Climategate affair look like small change.

“The global warming movement as we have known it is dead,” the brilliant analyst Walter Russell Mead says in his blog on The American Interest. It was done in by a combination of bad science and bad politics.

The impetus for the Copenhagen conference was that the science makes it imperative for us to act. But even if that were true – and even if we knew what to do – a global deal was never in the cards. As Mr. Mead writes, “The global warming movement proposed a complex set of international agreements involving vast transfers of funds, intrusive regulations in national economies, and substantial changes to the domestic political economies of most countries on the planet.” Copenhagen was never going to produce a breakthrough. It was a dead end.

And now, the science scandals just keep on coming. First there was the vast cache of e-mails leaked from the University of East Anglia, home of a crucial research unit responsible for collecting temperature data. Although not fatal to the science, they revealed a snakepit of scheming to keep contradictory research from being published, make imperfect data look better, and withhold information from unfriendly third parties. If science is supposed to be open and transparent, these guys acted as if they had a lot to hide.

Despite widespread efforts to play down the Climategate e-mails, they were very damaging. An investigation by the British newspaper The Guardian – among the most aggressive advocates for action on climate change – has found that a series of measurements from Chinese weather stations were seriously flawed, and that documents relating to them could not be produced.

Meantime, the IPCC – the body widely regarded, until now, as the ultimate authority on climate science – is looking worse and worse. After it was forced to retract its claim about melting glaciers, Mr. Pachauri dismissed the error as a one-off. But other IPCC claims have turned out to be just as groundless.

For example, it warned that large tracts of the Amazon rain forest might be wiped out by global warming because they are extremely susceptible to even modest decreases in rainfall. The sole source for that claim, reports The Sunday Times of London, was a magazine article written by a pair of climate activists, one of whom worked for the WWF. One scientist contacted by the Times, a specialist in tropical forest ecology, called the article “a mess.”

Worse still, the Times has discovered that Mr. Pachauri's own Energy and Resources Unit, based in New Delhi, has collected millions in grants to study the effects of glacial melting – all on the strength of that bogus glacier claim, which happens to have been endorsed by the same scientist who now runs the unit that got the money. Even so, the IPCC chief is hanging tough. He insists the attacks on him are being orchestrated by companies facing lower profits.

Until now, anyone who questioned the credibility of the IPCC was labelled as a climate skeptic, or worse. But many climate scientists now sense a sinking ship, and they're bailing out. Among them is Andrew Weaver, a climatologist at the University of Victoria who acknowledges that the climate body has crossed the line into advocacy. Even Britain's Greenpeace has called for Mr. Pachauri's resignation. India says it will establish its own body to monitor the effects of global warming because it “cannot rely” on the IPCC.

None of this is to say that global warming isn't real, or that human activity doesn't play a role, or that the IPCC is entirely wrong, or that measures to curb greenhouse-gas emissions aren't valid. But the strategy pursued by activists (including scientists who have crossed the line into advocacy) has turned out to be fatally flawed.

By exaggerating the certainties, papering over the gaps, demonizing the skeptics and peddling tales of imminent catastrophe, they've discredited the entire climate-change movement. The political damage will be severe. As Mr. Mead succinctly puts it: “Skeptics up, Obama down, cap-and-trade dead.” That also goes for Canada, whose climate policies are inevitably tied to those of the United States.

“I don't think it's healthy to dismiss proper skepticism,” says John Beddington, the chief scientific adviser to the British government. He is a staunch believer in man-made climate change, but he also points out the complexity of climate science. “Science grows and improves in the light of criticism. There is a fundamental uncertainty about climate change prediction that can't be changed.” In his view, it's time to stop circling the wagons and throw open the doors. How much the public will keep caring is another matter.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opi ... le1458206/

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by rick » February 7, 2010, 9:16 am

Skepticism is good - i never trust a banker. But, of all the evidence i have seen, SOME does support global warming, NONE of it clearly supports the case against. Theories do need to be revised, and have been actively year after year. The problem is extremely complex. We all know weather forecasting is difficult to get right, and weather is only one group of factors in the global warming arena.

However, it is simple to demonstrate that if you add carbon dioxide to an atmosphere that you will increase the greenhouse effect - any school science lab could do this experiment - hell, i could even do this at home. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that if the concentration of carbon dioxide goes up in the atmosphere, that there will be a stronger greenhouse effect - this can be calculated fairly easily. However, the earth is one big experiment which is changing all the time - therefore your theoretical result may be cancelled out or enhanced at any one point in time (or place) by natural variability - hence some data will not fit. but look at the trend - any global measure and most local ones will show temperatures are going up. Until someone can provide another cause, with some evidence, what are we left with?

1. We know that Man is responsible for creating a lot of carbon dioxide, more than would probably be produced if we were not burning fuels
2. We know that carbon dioxide levels are rising
3. we know that more carbon dioxide should produce a greater green house effect.
4. We know that temperatures are rising.

We have a chain of likely causes and effects. If anyone can PROVE that one of the above is not true, i would be very interested. Of course, other factors may either cancel out these effects or even enhance them. But so far, in the last 30 years or so, we do have a trend that goes one way.

In answer to WBU about alternative fuels, yes, i am not going to give up my air travel or stop having a car, but i do look at what i can do - e.g. in the home, it will be possible by improving insulation to cut out 90% of the need for heating in our cooler climates (e.g. Europe, USA); also i have just started using LED lights at home - 1 watt - 10 times better than even the fluroescents we have started using in the last 15 years, 50 times better than the old tungsten filaments. i will consider getting an electric car when they are good enough and cheap enough as well.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by WBU ALUM » February 7, 2010, 10:14 am

rick wrote:4. We know that temperatures are rising.
Everything I've read and heard says that the last 11 years have been cooler than previous years.
rick wrote:In answer to WBU about alternative fuels, yes, i am not going to give up my air travel or stop having a car, but i do look at what i can do - e.g. in the home, it will be possible by improving insulation to cut out 90% of the need for heating in our cooler climates (e.g. Europe, USA); also i have just started using LED lights at home - 1 watt - 10 times better than even the fluroescents we have started using in the last 15 years, 50 times better than the old tungsten filaments. i will consider getting an electric car when they are good enough and cheap enough as well.
I do what I can do as well -- same as you and more. I don't have a total disregard for responsible behavior.

What I object to is the secrecy, demonizing, lying and government oppression in the form of unreasonable taxes -- not to mention the fact that the US government wants to put themselves in charge of the buying and selling of carbon credits using some arbitrary value.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by WBU ALUM » February 7, 2010, 11:18 pm

More problems with the IPCC in the Telegraph.

New errors in IPCC climate change report

The IPCC claims to use the peer-reviewed standard; in the East Anglia CRU e-mails, its chief threatened to redefine peer review to block legitimate scientists from introducing peer-reviewed papers that contradicted AGW claims. And yet, we find a student's dissertation, unpublished, as part of the IPCC report?
It can also be revealed that claims made by the IPCC about the effects of global warming, and suggestions about ways it could be avoided, were partly based on information from ten dissertations by Masters students.

One unpublished dissertation was used to support the claim that sea-level rise could impact on people living in the Nile delta and other African coastal areas, although the main focus of the thesis, by a student at the Al-Azhar University in Cairo, appears to have been the impact of computer software on environmental development.

The IPCC also made use of a report by US conservation group Defenders of Wildlife to state that salmon in US streams have been affected by rising temperatures. The panel has already come under fire for using information in reports by conservation charity the WWF.

Estimates of carbon-dioxide emissions from nuclear power stations and claims that suggested they were cheaper than coal or gas power stations were also taken from the website of the World Nuclear Association, rather than using independent scientific calculations.
The Telegraph also reports that the IPCC deliberately ignored a peer-reviewed paper by Dr. Roger Pielke, an AGW believer who considers much of the alarmist rhetoric as fantasy. The IPCC says that they believed Pielke “changed his mind” based on nothing at all, certainly not on any contact with Pielke, whose complaints led to the disclosure.

It becomes more and more evident that the IPCC doesn’t do science, but are more like advocates for the idea of international control of energy and manufacturing. And don't forget redistribution of wealth.

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by rick » February 8, 2010, 7:29 pm

Here are 2 links related to global warming. First just news report about seals colonising North Peru from galapagos, because sea temperatures have risen from 17 degrees to 23 degrees.
Second contains links to temperature and CO2 level data for last 150 years and 800,000 years (ice cores). This shows that Co2 levels highest in 800,000 years, but also that most of that time was spent in ice ages with temperature 5 - 10 degrees cooler than now, a sobering thought. The CRU data (some will not believe them, i suppose) from last 150 years shows CO2 levels slowly trending up, but rapidly rise from about the 70's. Temperatures from the last 150 years show that only 1 year before 1960 had average temperature above current 1960-1990 average, and every year since 2001 has been well above that average by between 0.3- 0.5 degrees.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/8503397.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/sci ... 393855.stm

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Re: ClimateGate busts things wide open

Post by TJ » February 10, 2010, 2:59 pm

[quote="BKKSTAN"]I don't have a clue if the argument is true that we are causing the Global warming or not!Who do you believe?

After untold trillions wasted and careers and businesses destroyed the chickens are finally coming home to roost.

"It was presented as fact. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, led by India’s very own RK Pachauri, even announced a consensus on it. The world was heating up and humans were to blame. A pack of lies, it turns out.

The climate change fraud that is now unravelling is unprecedented in its deceit, unmatched in scope—and for the liberal elite, akin to 9 on the Richter scale. Never have so few fooled so many for so long, ever.

The entire world was being asked to change the way it lives on the basis of pure hyperbole. Propriety, probity and transparency were routinely sacrificed.

The truth is: the world is not heating up in any significant way. Neither are the Himalayan glaciers going to melt as claimed by 2035. Nor is there any link at all between natural disasters such as Hurricane Katrina and global warming. All that was pure nonsense, or if you like, ‘no-science’!

The climate change mafia, led by Dr Rajendra K Pachauri, chairperson of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), almost pulled off the heist of the century through fraudulent data and suppression of procedure. All the while, they were cornering millions of dollars in research grants that heaped one convenient untruth upon another. And as if the money wasn’t enough, the Nobel Committee decided they should have the coveted Peace Prize."

Full article here
http://www.propagandamatrix.com/article ... 10Hoax.htm

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