Do you really do your own research?

General off-topic debates and discussions forum.
Post Reply
User avatar
tamada
udonmap.com
Posts: 17220
Joined: February 21, 2007, 4:03 am
Location: Down two...then left

Do you really do your own research?

Post by tamada » January 6, 2022, 7:29 am

Here's something to ponder when a member dismissively says, "I'm not going to spoon feed you, go do your own research."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/03/opin ... earch.html


'Don't waste your words on people who deserve your silence'
~Reinhold Messner~

'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~

User avatar
papafarang
udonmap.com
Posts: 4300
Joined: August 2, 2013, 10:14 am

Re: Do you really do your own research?

Post by papafarang » January 6, 2022, 8:08 am

TD is saying "do your own research, from my list of self-approved sources." . :lol:
Hansa village clubhouse . Tel 0981657001 https://www.google.co.th/maps/place/Han ... 5851?hl=en

User avatar
parrot
udonmap.com
Posts: 10925
Joined: March 19, 2006, 8:32 pm

Re: Do you really do your own research?

Post by parrot » January 6, 2022, 9:06 am

papafarang wrote:
January 6, 2022, 8:08 am
TD is saying "do your own research, from my list of self-approved sources." . :lol:
But Joe Rogan graduated from Newton South High School, so at least he knows what he's talking about. And Mike Lindell went to the University of Minnesota.......for a few months.

User avatar
Laan Yaa Mo
udonmap.com
Posts: 9185
Joined: February 7, 2007, 9:12 am
Location: ขอนแก่น

Re: Do you really do your own research?

Post by Laan Yaa Mo » January 6, 2022, 10:12 am

Golden Gophers don't know much. Now if he had attended South Dakota State and become a Jackrabbit that would be a different story/piece of research.
You only pass through this life once, you don't come back for an encore.

User avatar
JimboPSM
udonmap.com
Posts: 3581
Joined: July 4, 2005, 3:23 pm
Location: Isle of Man / Bangkok / Udon Thani

Re: Do you really do your own research?

Post by JimboPSM » January 6, 2022, 2:56 pm

Some examples of my recently updated research into the Thailand economy and cures for insomnia:

1. Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) for the THB from January 1984 to December 2021.
  • Thailand 2021 NEER.jpg

2. Thailand Net International Reserves at Yearend from 1999 to 2021.
  • Thailand 2021 NIR in THB.jpg

3. Annual Movement in Thailand Net International Reserves from 2000 to 2021.
  • Thailand 2021 NIR Movement in THB.jpg

4. Thailand Annual Exports, Imports and Trade Balance in THB (millions).
  • Thailand 2021 Exports ImportsTradeBalanceTHB.jpg

.
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016 when England voted for racism & economic suicide.

Disgusted that the UK is “governed” by a squalid bunch of economically illiterate, self-serving, sleazy and corrupt neo-fascists.

User avatar
tamada
udonmap.com
Posts: 17220
Joined: February 21, 2007, 4:03 am
Location: Down two...then left

Re: Do you really do your own research?

Post by tamada » January 6, 2022, 9:03 pm

^ Nice work there Jimbo.

Shows what a stellar job the 'army' has done turning Thailand's economy around.
'Don't waste your words on people who deserve your silence'
~Reinhold Messner~

'You don't have to be afraid of everything you don't understand'
~Louise Perica~

User avatar
deankham
udonmap.com
Posts: 1391
Joined: March 17, 2008, 5:24 am
Location: Alseep under the tree

Re: Do you really do your own research?

Post by deankham » January 6, 2022, 9:16 pm

What happened to the NEER in Jan 2012 Jimbo? Any significant event?

I love graphs.

User avatar
JimboPSM
udonmap.com
Posts: 3581
Joined: July 4, 2005, 3:23 pm
Location: Isle of Man / Bangkok / Udon Thani

Re: Do you really do your own research?

Post by JimboPSM » January 7, 2022, 12:16 pm

deankham wrote:
January 6, 2022, 9:16 pm
What happened to the NEER in Jan 2012 Jimbo? Any significant event?
The biggest event / factor in 2011 was the general election in July of that year (election years tend to produce rather strange numbers in Forex related markets).

The general election set in motion a “policy” that would ultimately lead the newly elected government to its demise,

Other than the election there was nothing that springs to mind that was particularly special about 2011.

In 2011 Thailand was still enjoying a good run (post 2004 Tsunami) of real economic growth; however there was a sentiment in some quarters that markets had become overly optimistic about Thailand and were probably overvalued with the attendant dangers of some market corrections.

Returning to the “policy” I mentioned above, this was the Rice Pledging Scheme; a plan to buy domestically produced rice at higher than market prices (it is difficult to find words that are sufficiently scathing about this “policy” and those who peddled it).

It was obvious to those with knowledge and experience of how markets actually work that it was a “policy” that, for a multiplicity of reasons, would be an economic disaster (for reasons I cannot understand, the media failed to draw sufficient attention to how seriously flawed this “policy” was).

It is quite possible that, should the media have done its job and should the government of the day have called a halt to this “policy” in its early days, the government might well have survived.

However, history shows that the media did not do its job and the government, far from calling a halt to its idiotic, economically illiterate “policy”, doubled down on it and the government didn’t survive.

The saddest thing about the fallout from the Rice Pledging Scheme is that the demise of the government came from the usual suspects, not from the ballot box.

What is undeniable is how well, even with a government that contains little in the way of economic competence, the economic factors in Thailand improved (although not for everyone - so no change there) after the Rice Pledging Scheme was terminated.

.
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016 when England voted for racism & economic suicide.

Disgusted that the UK is “governed” by a squalid bunch of economically illiterate, self-serving, sleazy and corrupt neo-fascists.

User avatar
rick
udonmap.com
Posts: 3238
Joined: January 9, 2008, 10:36 am
Location: Udon, or UK May-August

Re: Do you really do your own research?

Post by rick » January 7, 2022, 2:52 pm

Failed to mention that the biggest factor in winter 2011/2012 was the massive central province floods - a lot of industry was out of action for months, hence the poor economic performance.

User avatar
FrazeeDK
udonmap.com
Posts: 4910
Joined: February 13, 2006, 2:02 am
Location: Udon Thani Thailand

Re: Do you really do your own research?

Post by FrazeeDK » January 7, 2022, 3:52 pm

in depth analysis of the paddy rice pledging scheme through the years.. Note, if you were in Thailand around the time frame of Yingluck's money losing pledging scheme you might remember warehouses with rotten rice, warehouses with rice sacks stacked around hollow areas, and rampant fraud. Other than a few top government ministers did any of the rice barons go to jail?? https://ap.fftc.org.tw/article/1426
Dave

User avatar
JimboPSM
udonmap.com
Posts: 3581
Joined: July 4, 2005, 3:23 pm
Location: Isle of Man / Bangkok / Udon Thani

Re: Do you really do your own research?

Post by JimboPSM » January 7, 2022, 5:59 pm

rick wrote:
January 7, 2022, 2:52 pm
Failed to mention that the biggest factor in winter 2011/2012 was the massive central province floods - a lot of industry was out of action for months, hence the poor economic performance.
Your are correct that there was major flooding in 2011.

I have to wonder why those floods left so little impression on me some ten years later.

I’ve looked back at my posts in 2011 and, from the content of them, it appears clear that the economic impact of them failed to fully register with me at the time (despite having waded through flood waters in 2011 both in Udon and Bangkok).

The economic data that I follow most closely for Thailand are the export numbers from the BoT (these are probably the most closely monitored and accurate economic performance numbers that are produced).

I don’t actively follow domestic activity closely as I have little confidence in the domestic numbers due to the extent of shadow economic activity (also a feature of many “advanced” western economies).

While Export data for 2011 actually shows an increase in exports of 10.6% over 2011 (as shown in my earlier post) I believe that you are also correct about an overall decline in economic performance in 2011.

For a bit more detail this chart includes monthly BoT export data for 2011 and, as an added bonus, the monthly exports for 2021 (up to November) which show a remarkable recovery in export performance from March highlighted by the red rectangle. (so much so that 2021 is almost certain to be its best ever year for exports).
  • Thailand 2021 Monthly Exports THB.jpg
The recovery for exports in 2021 is so large that 2021 is almost certain to be the best ever year for Thailand exports).

.
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016 when England voted for racism & economic suicide.

Disgusted that the UK is “governed” by a squalid bunch of economically illiterate, self-serving, sleazy and corrupt neo-fascists.

User avatar
rick
udonmap.com
Posts: 3238
Joined: January 9, 2008, 10:36 am
Location: Udon, or UK May-August

Re: Do you really do your own research?

Post by rick » January 9, 2022, 11:25 pm

I remember the flooding impact in Udon - i was trying to buy a Nissan March, could only find one - the showroom had just 3 cars in it, but space for 10. I asked about a different colour - told no more new cars expected for months. So Hobson's choice it was.

At Tesco i remember seeing whole aisles with more spaces than products - if it came up from Bangkok, no new supplies. I wonder why exports are up in 2021 - is it due to Western manufacturing being harder hit, Amazon's supply of Covid lockdown Junk or because half the people in Thailand couldn't afford to buy anything except necessities, so leaving more product for export......

User avatar
JimboPSM
udonmap.com
Posts: 3581
Joined: July 4, 2005, 3:23 pm
Location: Isle of Man / Bangkok / Udon Thani

Re: Do you really do your own research?

Post by JimboPSM » January 10, 2022, 12:53 pm

rick wrote:
January 9, 2022, 11:25 pm
..... I wonder why exports are up in 2021 - is it due to Western manufacturing being harder hit, Amazon's supply of Covid lockdown Junk or because half the people in Thailand couldn't afford to buy anything except necessities, so leaving more product for export......
Really good questions...... to which there are no easy answers which don’t contain multiple rabbit holes which would distract from the reality of Thailand recovering so rapidly in both export and import markets.

What is also unclear is why (when you look at the charts) both exports and imports started to fall towards the end of 2018, more than a year before Covid-19 made its unwelcome appearance?

Indeed, if it wasn’t for Covid-19, the fall during the first year of Covid-19 (2020) in both exports and imports could easily be attributed to the trend that started towards the end of 2018.

As with the chart for exports I posted earlier, this chart for imports includes the monthly BoT import data for 2011 and 2021 (up to November); it also shows a similar recovery in import performance from March (this time highlighted by a blue rectangle).
  • Thailand 2021 Monthly Imports THB.jpg

For a more direct comparison of exports and imports this chart shows both of them from 2005:
  • Thailand 2021 Monthly Exports & Imports THB.jpg
    What the above comparison shows is that both Thailand exports and imports, broadly speaking, follow similar tracks (although exports over the longer term would appear, in numeric terms, to be improving slightly faster as shown by the Trade Balance in the chart below).

While Exports and Imports are important, the Trade Balance that they generate is just as important as it shows the degree of gain or loss to Thailand of its trading activity with the rest of the world.

This chart includes Exports, Imports and the Trade Balance from 2005:
  • Thailand 2021 Monthly Exports, Imports & Trade Balance.jpg

It is important to note that there is something that the direct trading numbers are not able to show – the benefit of the multiplier effect that is generated by international trading activity on the domestic economy (while being considerable, I do not have the data, time or expertise in economics to be able to calculate what I would consider to be reliable numbers in this area).

.
Ashamed to be English since 23rd June 2016 when England voted for racism & economic suicide.

Disgusted that the UK is “governed” by a squalid bunch of economically illiterate, self-serving, sleazy and corrupt neo-fascists.

Post Reply

Return to “General Debates & Discussions”