Post Covid ecomony

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saint
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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by saint » June 8, 2020, 4:32 am

pipoz4444 wrote:
June 7, 2020, 8:32 pm
mickojak wrote:
June 7, 2020, 6:11 pm
My mate and wife are currently staying at the Centre Point Hotel Silom, Bangkok.
It's a very big place.
They are the only one's there.

When you consider that this is probably common for all hotels across Thailand, it's very scary.
Future will be disastrous for most, I think.
Sad, but unavoidable now
I second that mickojak, it is just the tip of the iceberg, especially for the Hotel and Restaurant businesses

Whilst the smaller Restaurants may recover a little bit quicker, where they cater to Thai's at more affordable prices the larger Chain type Restaurants and semi Western style ones will be in the doldrums for quite some time.

I doubt that anyone, be it the Thai's or Tourists (those who still have jobs) will be rushing out in droves to spend their money very, very freely. From now on, people will be naturally more cautious, with how much they spend and what they spend it on, partly due to being scared that the Virus will come back and that they might lose their jobs, next time. [-o< [-o<

The Covid 19 has rocked peoples sense of Lifestyle Security, part of which was having a job that they could count on for an extended period of time. So naturally those fortunate enough to still have jobs and those fortunate to get one in the near future, will look to save some money every month for that rainy day. People will no longer go out and spend all their money each month, like many younger ones did before, knowing or feeling comfortable that they had a new paycheck coming at the start of the next month. Certainly, not until the very good times have returned, if they every do. :-k :-k :-k

As for the Hoteliers, well they have another 6 to 12 month of struggling with business, given the slim tourist pickings that will be out there. Sad for many and a number of the smaller Family Hotels/Bed & Breakfast, just won’t survive the lack of revenue. 8-[ 8-[

People will also take less holidays a year and possibly shorter ones at that, for the next 12 months. From a personal point (as an expat working overseas) I have decided to reduce my trips to Thailand in 2021 from 6 per year to 3 maybe 4 per year. And I know of six or more guys that I work with, who have decided to cut their planned travelling in half in year 2021. And that is just a small group that I know. I am sure there are many others contemplating the same thing, i.e. to cut back on expenditure in year 2021. It is just a sign, of the times to come. :-k :-k

pipoz4444
Excellent post summing up the future very well .
I think the youth of today who basically have been driven by the consumer society they have grown up with , have had a short , sharp lesson regarding what they have been spending ,and in the most part wasting their money on for years knowing there was always another pay check coming , are now realising , nothing in life is guarenteed .
I think the longer this goes on the more of the younger generation will actually start to save some of their money , and think twice about what they squander on the latest phone or newest car ect .
As the worlds economy before the Chinese virus was solely based on consumerism , the long reaching effects will last for decades . Manufacturing hubs , and tourist generated economies will be hit the hardest i fear .



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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by noosard » June 8, 2020, 5:32 am

GT93 wrote:
June 7, 2020, 3:35 pm
PM Prayut Chan-o-cha is deliberating a proposal to open up the country to foreign tourists from countries where the coronavirus appears to be under control, officials said Friday.

Tourism minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn said PM Prayut has expressed interest in negotiating tourism exchanges with those countries, known as a bubble agreement, which will allow tourists to travel without having to go through the quarantine measures.
https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/bus ... us-threat/

My principal concerns as a potential tourist are an hour plus in a queue at Swampy with passengers from Covid 19 infested countries. That's a major turn off as is any quarantine on entering Thailand. And the killer is the 14 day quarantine on returning to my country. I can't see that being lifted.
The thing is if countries have these so called travel bubbles it could mean there is no 14 days either end of the travel
Will have to wait and see what agreements are made
But I personally can not see this happening before next year

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by Khun Paul » June 8, 2020, 6:48 am

noosard wrote:
June 8, 2020, 5:32 am
GT93 wrote:
June 7, 2020, 3:35 pm
PM Prayut Chan-o-cha is deliberating a proposal to open up the country to foreign tourists from countries where the coronavirus appears to be under control, officials said Friday.

Tourism minister Phiphat Ratchakitprakarn said PM Prayut has expressed interest in negotiating tourism exchanges with those countries, known as a bubble agreement, which will allow tourists to travel without having to go through the quarantine measures.
https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/bus ... us-threat/

My principal concerns as a potential tourist are an hour plus in a queue at Swampy with passengers from Covid 19 infested countries. That's a major turn off as is any quarantine on entering Thailand. And the killer is the 14 day quarantine on returning to my country. I can't see that being lifted.
The thing is if countries have these so called travel bubbles it could mean there is no 14 days either end of the travel
Will have to wait and see what agreements are made
But I personally can not see this happening before next year
Judging by the fudging and jiggling of this and that regarding quarantine plus individual countries almost making the rules up as they go aka Different rules for England and Scotland , then travel this year is out in my book and probably for 5 months into next year to allow everything to settle down. What does worry me is that the African Continent is highlighted as possibly having infections into the middle of next year.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by mickojak » June 8, 2020, 7:40 am

I think, once agreements are made with other "safe" countries, they are likely to allow direct flights, with no 14 day quarantine, but with regular testing done here.

I can't see flights with transit stops being allowed too soon, and if so, probably still have to do 14 days quarantine.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by tamada » June 8, 2020, 9:15 am

Air bridges and travel bubbles my ass. Government's selling impractical pipe dreams to their gullible.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by cjd01 » June 8, 2020, 9:25 am

Well after watching the reaction of governments around the globe re protests
I can't wait to sign on so I can travel on the soon to be exempt social distancing protest air flights between countries.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by mickojak » June 8, 2020, 11:27 am

tamada wrote:
June 8, 2020, 9:15 am
Air bridges and travel bubbles my ass. Government's selling impractical pipe dreams to their gullible.
So, the're never gunna open the borders?

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by tamada » June 8, 2020, 11:43 am

mickojak wrote:
June 8, 2020, 11:27 am
tamada wrote:
June 8, 2020, 9:15 am
Air bridges and travel bubbles my ass. Government's selling impractical pipe dreams to their gullible.
So, the're never gunna open the borders?
Borders will reopen when no nation is publicly labeled as being dirty or infected so much that is does not to qualify for any sort of air travel. The current 'Covid-free' summer vacation is a fantasy of various national tourism departments and beleaguered airlines.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by mickojak » June 8, 2020, 11:50 am

tamada wrote:
June 8, 2020, 11:43 am
Borders will reopen when no nation is publicly labeled as being dirty or infected
So, are you saying, no nations on the entire planet?

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by noosard » June 8, 2020, 12:14 pm

Sri Lanka has got its borders open
but it has a fist rule of rules to be obeyed

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by tamada » June 8, 2020, 12:16 pm

^^ The developed nations are talking up a second wave whereas many lesser-developed countries may still be battling the first wave or, like Thailand and Vietnam, have not even had much of a wave yet. Some of the more developed nations are talking about bubbles and corridors while many of them maintain lists of nations whose non-tourist citizens are banned. Once we have a global r that is < 1.0, beyond repatriation flights, I don't think it's a great idea to start flying tourist groups in and out of anywhere.

AFAIK, Covid-19 doesn't know the difference between a tourist and a massage shop.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by cjd01 » June 8, 2020, 12:27 pm

tamada wrote:
June 8, 2020, 12:16 pm
^^ The developed nations are talking up a second wave whereas many lesser-developed countries may still be battling the first wave or, like Thailand and Vietnam, have not even had much of a wave yet. Some of the more developed nations are talking about bubbles and corridors while many of them maintain lists of nations whose non-tourist citizens are banned. Once we have a global r that is < 1.0, beyond repatriation flights, I don't think it's a great idea to start flying tourist groups in and out of anywhere.

AFAIK, Covid-19 doesn't know the difference between a tourist and a massage shop.
100%
but using Pakistan as an example their PM has declared they are too poor to have a economic shut down or social lock down, mass deaths now.
I'm of the belief that even our wealthiest countries can't continue with this indefinitely, no solution in sight.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by mickojak » June 8, 2020, 12:28 pm

The world will possiblt never reach <1.0.
This virus is here to stay.
We can only manage it.

If two countries are virtually virus free, why not allow direct flights between the two with constant testing?

This has to happen.
The world will collapse if shut down forever.

Many people are prepared to take the chance.
People who are scared should just stay isolated.
Whats the problem with that?
Why restrict the others.
It's just selfish

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by pipoz4444 » June 8, 2020, 1:44 pm

Apparently Sri Lanka has this in mind

Item 1: I suspect will be a standard requirement with the majority of Countries from now in until a Vaccine is found. No mention of special Medical Insurance.
Item 2: No to invasive and make sense, and again doesn't demand a ridiculously high Insurance Cover. Normal Travel Insurance should suffice.
Item 4: Restricting Visitors/Tourists to only stay in Ministry designated Hotels, will not help attract Tourists back. Doesn't also help the smaller Family run B&B. What is thy are not GF. \:D/ \:D/
Item 5: No issue as very few people every travel for a holiday for less than 5 days.


Extract from "thejakartapost"

1. Sri Lanka's tourism ministry said travelers will be able to visit from August 1, but they must carry a COVID-19 free certificate issued not earlier than 72 hours before boarding.

2. Even with this document, tourists will have to take a virus test at the airport upon arrival. A further check will be done four to five days later -- and a third if staying for more than 10 days.

3. "While this may be inconvenient it is essential to safeguard everybody and provide peace of mind," the ministry said.

4. The regular visa fee of $40 has been increased to $100, visitors can only stay in hotels designated by the ministry, and are not allowed to use public transport on the island.

5. In addition, only those who will spend a minimum of five days in Sri Lanka will be allowed in.

pipoz4444

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by Doodoo » June 8, 2020, 2:03 pm

cjd
I know you used Pakistan as an example but they have enough money siting in their Defense Budget $11,5 Billion USD to shuffle around. So the PM can cry us a river on how poor he is and get his priorities in a row, which other countries should be telling them and a few other on the list

This isnt an attack to you it is an attack on countries that say how poor they are but really arent. Then we are dragged in and told how mean we are to them and letting their citizens starve etc

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by cjd01 » June 8, 2020, 2:55 pm

Doodoo wrote:
June 8, 2020, 2:03 pm
cjd
I know you used Pakistan as an example but they have enough money siting in their Defense Budget $11,5 Billion USD to shuffle around. So the PM can cry us a river on how poor he is and get his priorities in a row, which other countries should be telling them and a few other on the list

This isnt an attack to you it is an attack on countries that say how poor they are but really arent. Then we are dragged in and told how mean we are to them and letting their citizens starve etc
No offence taken
was just using it as an example, of countries saying they couldn't shut down due to lack finances any correction to my posts is fine if in the true spirit of debate.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by AlexO » June 8, 2020, 6:16 pm

tamada wrote:
June 8, 2020, 11:43 am
mickojak wrote:
June 8, 2020, 11:27 am
tamada wrote:
June 8, 2020, 9:15 am
Air bridges and travel bubbles my ass. Government's selling impractical pipe dreams to their gullible.
So, the're never gunna open the borders?
Borders will reopen when no nation is publicly labeled as being dirty or infected so much that is does not to qualify for any sort of air travel. The current 'Covid-free' summer vacation is a fantasy of various national tourism departments and beleaguered airlines.
=D> =D> =D> :( :( :(
Pretty accurate assessment Tam. Who is going to come to a holiday destination where facemasks are mandatory, screens are placed in front of you and the person you slept beside last night when you eat. Why on earth would you go and have a soapy from a naked girl but both of you have to wear face masks?? One year at least before normality assuming no second wave.

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by pipoz4444 » June 9, 2020, 11:46 am

pipoz4444 wrote:
June 8, 2020, 1:44 pm
Apparently Sri Lanka has this in mind

Item 1: I suspect will be a standard requirement with the majority of Countries from now in until a Vaccine is found. No mention of special Medical Insurance.
Item 2: No to invasive and make sense, and again doesn't demand a ridiculously high Insurance Cover. Normal Travel Insurance should suffice.
Item 4: Restricting Visitors/Tourists to only stay in Ministry designated Hotels, will not help attract Tourists back. Doesn't also help the smaller Family run B&B. What is thy are not GF. \:D/ \:D/
Item 5: No issue as very few people every travel for a holiday for less than 5 days.

Extract from "thejakartapost"
1. Sri Lanka's tourism ministry said travelers will be able to visit from August 1, but they must carry a COVID-19 free certificate issued not earlier than 72 hours before boarding.
2. Even with this document, tourists will have to take a virus test at the airport upon arrival. A further check will be done four to five days later -- and a third if staying for more than 10 days.
3. "While this may be inconvenient it is essential to safeguard everybody and provide peace of mind," the ministry said.
4. The regular visa fee of $40 has been increased to $100, visitors can only stay in hotels designated by the ministry, and are not allowed to use public transport on the island.
5. In addition, only those who will spend a minimum of five days in Sri Lanka will be allowed in.
pipoz4444
CAMBODIA: I see the KHMER Times is reporting that Cambodia will open its Hotels and Airport for International Flights this month (June), but with no details of what extra requirements or restrictions they will impose on Tourists

Elsewhere I read a week ago that Cambodia Immigration, were also going to require that Tourist came with a,

1. Covid 19 Clear Test taken 72 Hours prior to travel, but no details of whether it had to be attested to buy the Cambodian Embassy in the Country of departure.

For the Cambodian Immigration to ask (if they do) that Tourists get their Covid 19 documents attested at a Cam Embassy in the country of departure before ones flies, would not make a lot of sense, because they do not have Embassies in a lot of Countries and or major Cities.

2. US 50,000 Medical Insurance Policy, although this too was unclear as to whether it would be applied to Tourist or those wanting a Long Stay Visa

It’s becoming apparent that Countries such as Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos, will all impose new document and or medical cover rules for the general 30 Day Tourist person and also more stringent ones for those wanting a Long Stay, Works and or Retirement visa as part of the post Covid 19 entrance into their Countries.

Maybe each of these four Countries is waiting to see what the other one does, as they all scramble to chase for the International Tourist business, when thing settle down a bit more. :confused: :confused:

pipoz4444

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by pipoz4444 » June 11, 2020, 10:48 am

The strengthening of the Thai Baht over this past week is not going to help the Thai Economy pick up, especially from a Tourist point

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Re: Post Covid ecomony

Post by pipoz4444 » June 11, 2020, 3:09 pm

One can see what has and what is is still happening to the Tourism and Restaurant businesses, as a result of the Covid-19, due to the loss of revenue income over just this past few months, in, ……………..

We have not seen the complete outcome, in terms of “Tangible Impact” such as, how many of these businesses will never open again and how many will be put up For Sale, etc. This should become more evident over the next 6 months. Similarly in the Condo Property Market and the possibility of Fire Sales, by those who have already paid their Deposits, but can no longer afford to pay the Balance.

Many of these businesses and individuals will carry debt of some sort, likely to a …………Bank, and that Bank for whatever reason will most likely, still list it as an Asset at its pre Covid 19 Value, even though the business/individual may not have been making his month payments or be paying off the debt or worst can't demonstrate that he can pay the Debt in the future.

At some point in time, these Banks will need at re-adjust their Balance Sheets. Either Write down the Value of the Asset, Declare it as a Bad Debt or even Write off the Total Value of the Debt (if that business has ceased to operated and defaulted). Ultimately this will impact on the Banks Balance Sheet (Assets vs Liabilities = Net Worth) and potentially the Banks Credit Rating. :-k

Whilst the eventual impact of Covid-19 has not shown up in the Banking industry yet, buy it may well do so towards the fourth Quarter of this year or the first Quarter of next year, when the Accountants & Auditors scramble to make sense out of the numbers, to protect their current Credit Ratings. :yikes:

I have never been a great fan of Standard & Poor’s, not after 2009 Financial crisis and their part in the Ratings Scam and their failure to fully disclose the true risk associated with Mortgage Securities, S & P's conduct in the matter was described as Egregious”, by the then US Attorney General. As to Moody’s and Fitch (owned by Hearst Coorp), both have been around for a while, they appear to be a reliable rating source, to indicate the Banking Liquidity structure. =; =; :yikes:

I think the Banking industry will be one of the next major Industries to show its hand, with regards to the true impact of the Covid-19. :-k :-k

So, I watch with interest, Bank Credit Ratings for Outlook, Short term and Long term, as they appear Post Covid-19, just in case I have to bury money in the back yard. :pirate: :pirate: :fryingpan:

pipoz4444

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