US declares 30-day European travel ban.

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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by sometimewoodworker » March 12, 2020, 4:45 pm

pipoz4444 wrote:
March 12, 2020, 4:01 pm
There is only one priority here, and that is to "Contain" the virus outbreak/spread, as best one can, first and so buy some time to develop a vaccine. Or guess what, you will have 5 Million or so people to vaccinate by the end of this year and a few hundred thousand dead. :-k :-k
Unfortunately there is unlikely to be a vaccine available this year from the information available.

It will only be 5 Million or so people to vaccinate if you are talking about the high risk groups in Thailand only

The scientific evidence suggests that imposed travel bans will not work as a control in an infection spread in the way that CV19 spreads.

Even before the ban a very high percentage of people were not flying, so much so that most A380s have been grounded by the airlines and many flights have a load factor of 30% and under. A lot of flights are only running to maintain the incredibly valuable airport slots.

There does seem to be a medication that can reduce vastly the severity of the infection, though how much is available and how soon it can be resupplied is a different matter.

FWIW Flybe has collapsed and so will quite a few more airlines this year.


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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by sometimewoodworker » March 12, 2020, 4:51 pm

GT93 wrote:
March 12, 2020, 4:30 pm
I think technically experts say the virus is past the point of containment in the US. The strategy is to minimize its impact and slow its spread. The ban supports that.
Minimising the impact by slowing the spread is certainly a good policy, so why not ground all flights within the USA? That would probably be far more effective.
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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by pipoz4444 » March 12, 2020, 5:26 pm

sometimewoodworker wrote:
March 12, 2020, 4:45 pm
pipoz4444 wrote:
March 12, 2020, 4:01 pm
There is only one priority here, and that is to "Contain" the virus outbreak/spread, as best one can, first and so buy some time to develop a vaccine. Or guess what, you will have 5 Million or so people to vaccinate by the end of this year and a few hundred thousand dead. :-k :-k
The scientific evidence suggests that imposed travel bans will not work as a control in an infection spread in the way that CV19 spreads.
Sorry STWW but the above is just a throw statement - “What scientific evidence are we referring to (a trend graph) and from which so call Scientists”.

Or you advocating that we do nothing and freely allow all people to travel where ever they want to, regardless of the consequences :confused:

This is an issue for epidemiologists/pulmonologists who are far more qualified in the field of Virus outbreaks and or Pandemics and how best to contain them :-k

Those epidemiologists/pulmonologists are most likely very familiar with how SARS performed/spread, the differences between SARS and COVID-19 and I dare say they are very quickly coming to grips with what to do with the COVID-19 outbreak. They would be the first that I would listen to. :-k

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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by sometimewoodworker » March 12, 2020, 8:17 pm

pipoz4444 wrote:
March 12, 2020, 5:26 pm


Sorry STWW but the above is just a throw statement - “What scientific evidence are we referring to (a trend graph) and from which so call Scientists”.
The meta analysis paper is
An integrative review of the limited evidence on international travel bans as an emerging infectious disease disaster control measures

Author's are Nicole A. Errett, PhD, MSPH Lauren M. Sauer, MS Lainie Rutkow, PhD, JD, MPH

Published in Journal of Emergency Management
14
Vol. 18, No. 1, January/February 2020

Is that enough?
pipoz4444 wrote:
March 12, 2020, 5:26 pm
Or you advocating that we do nothing and freely allow all people to travel where ever they want to, regardless of the consequences :confused:
Not at all, please don't put words in my mouth,
The blanket travel ban is just a political show, and will do far more harm than good.

Certainly there should probably be screening prior to travel, and stopping travel from higher risk areas such as the U.K. France Germany and Italy is understandable but blanket banning citizens of all 26 when only 7 have cases and 4 of them have les than 10. Is pure politics.
pipoz4444 wrote:
March 12, 2020, 5:26 pm
This is an issue for epidemiologists/pulmonologists who are far more qualified in the field of Virus outbreaks and or Pandemics and how best to contain them :-k

Those epidemiologists/pulmonologists are most likely very familiar with how SARS performed/spread, the differences between SARS and COVID-19 and I dare say they are very quickly coming to grips with what to do with the COVID-19 outbreak. They would be the first that I would listen to. :-k

pipoz4444
Regrettably they are being muzzled in the USA .

I certainly agree that they should be the people to listen to, if it were possible to do so.

However while we can't hear from them blindly supporting idiots and idiotic political policies is not helpful.

SARS & MERS had very much higher death rates but the infection vectors orders of magnitude less than CV19 and in those containment was able to work well.

The last similar pandemic, H1N1 influenza, wasn’t controlled by containment fortunately it’s mortality rate was around 0.02%. Though that was still 575,400 people who died.

So far due in large part to the lack of availability of testing there is no realistic information on the CV19 mortality. The WHO figures of around 3.4% are only of the most badly affected so the reality is that it will be lower. But of course that is no reason for complacency.
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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by sometimewoodworker » March 12, 2020, 8:50 pm

The Dow has reacted to the travel ban by dropping another 1,600 points to 21,801 overnight and it looks as if the 7% fall Circuit breaker may have been triggered again it’s still falling at the moment.

So was the travel ban a political show or a real way of slowing the spread? The market is saying show.
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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by pipoz4444 » March 12, 2020, 9:48 pm

Hi STWW

A number of other countries already have varying degrees of travel bans in place, whether it be flying to countries or receiving travelers from countries. It’s not just the USA of recent, and each is based on how they view their own Risk with regards to non-citizens entering their countries at this particular time. As a Sovereign Nation it is their sole right to impose any travel entry bans at any time for any reason, especially with a Pandemic in play. They did it in times of war and this is no different.

Among those countries at present are, Australia, Qatar, Malaysia, New Zealand, Bahrain, Oman, Jordon, Bahamas, Indonesia, Italy, Kuwait, Afghanistan +++. Granted many have directed their entry bans against travelers from China as a whole and specifically from the present high risk cities in China. But not all. Some has already added the likes of Italy, Japan, Iran & Thailand etc, to their list. However this is early days and I suspect many will broaden their respective travel entry bans to include other countries, as time goes on. Will it improve the containment, time will tell, but it certainly cant impede the process of containment.

To quote from another Academic Paper/Journal on the issue of Containment and Risk Management of Pandemic virus, “………….As countries face different risks at different times they are advised to develop their own national risk assessments and management plans…………………” There different views expressed throughout the various papers on risk management and how best to contain pandemics, across the internet and that of “the meta-analysis” is but one.

Let’s just say I disagree with your view STWW :lol: :lol: on the matter \:D/

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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by GT93 » March 13, 2020, 12:34 am

No 10 said on Thursday the government had no plans for the UK to follow the US. “It’s not the current position of the UK, based on medical and scientific advice, that we should halt flights,” the spokesman said.

Downing Street has so far judged that the disruption that would be caused by blanket school shutdowns, for example, would outweigh the benefits in terms of slowing the spread of the disease.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... virus-plan

I suppose we'll learn more as to why there are different approaches.

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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by GT93 » March 13, 2020, 12:37 am

sometimewoodworker wrote:
March 12, 2020, 4:51 pm
GT93 wrote:
March 12, 2020, 4:30 pm
I think technically experts say the virus is past the point of containment in the US. The strategy is to minimize its impact and slow its spread. The ban supports that.
Minimising the impact by slowing the spread is certainly a good policy, so why not ground all flights within the USA? That would probably be far more effective.
I suppose it will come and will be based around where the virus is the most rampant.

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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by sometimewoodworker » March 13, 2020, 7:03 am

pipoz4444 wrote:
March 12, 2020, 9:48 pm

Let’s just say I disagree with your view STWW :lol: :lol: on the matter \:D/

pipoz4444
My point was: to ban travel from Austria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Switzerland.

None of whom have reported cases of CV10 instead of The country’s that do have it France, Germany, Italy, with higher numbers and Spain, Sweden, Finland, Belgium, all with less than 10 cases.

Is stupid politics also at the same time allowing travel from the U.K. where there are over 400 cases makes it even worse.

To ban or put restrictions on travel from infected areas is of course a way of trying to control transmission and of course any one can do that THAILAND has just done so by a temporary cancellation of Visas on arrival for some countries and visa exemption for three, now for all of them requiring a visa which needs a medical certificate to get. Will that stop infectious individuals traveling? Of course not, (you can be infectious but symptom less) but it will reduce the numbers. This has a clear health related purpose.

While Trump was talking the DJIA futures market was falling and closed even lower at -2,352.60 or -9.99% for the day so the market feeling seems to be that so far there is no real plan known for CV19 or to stop or even slow the market fall.
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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by papafarang » March 13, 2020, 7:19 am

GT93 wrote:
March 13, 2020, 12:37 am
sometimewoodworker wrote:
March 12, 2020, 4:51 pm
GT93 wrote:
March 12, 2020, 4:30 pm
I think technically experts say the virus is past the point of containment in the US. The strategy is to minimize its impact and slow its spread. The ban supports that.
Minimising the impact by slowing the spread is certainly a good policy, so why not ground all flights within the USA? That would probably be far more effective.
I suppose it will come and will be based around where the virus is the most rampant.
The virus is already there, so the real point is to stop internal travel as the Chinese and Italians did, so without doing so your wasting your time.. the mentality of the ban shows in the statement ' to stop the FOREIGN virus spreading ' viruses don't have passports, they don't care which country their in. Closing the gate after the horse has bolted seems to be the thinking here.
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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by Khun Paul » March 13, 2020, 7:29 am

papafarang wrote:
March 13, 2020, 7:19 am
GT93 wrote:
March 13, 2020, 12:37 am
sometimewoodworker wrote:
March 12, 2020, 4:51 pm
GT93 wrote:
March 12, 2020, 4:30 pm
I think technically experts say the virus is past the point of containment in the US. The strategy is to minimize its impact and slow its spread. The ban supports that.
Minimising the impact by slowing the spread is certainly a good policy, so why not ground all flights within the USA? That would probably be far more effective.
I suppose it will come and will be based around where the virus is the most rampant.
The virus is already there, so the real point is to stop internal travel as the Chinese and Italians did, so without doing so your wasting your time.. the mentality of the ban shows in the statement ' to stop the FOREIGN virus spreading ' viruses don't have passports, they don't care which country their in. Closing the gate after the horse has bolted seems to be the thinking here.
No Papa. your wrong, thinking was not a word I would associate with the BAN, just bloody stupidity, something we have all come to realise with POTUS, elect a Moron and this is what you get.

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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by sometimewoodworker » March 13, 2020, 10:32 am

GT93 wrote:
March 13, 2020, 12:37 am
sometimewoodworker wrote:
March 12, 2020, 4:51 pm
GT93 wrote:
March 12, 2020, 4:30 pm
I think technically experts say the virus is past the point of containment in the US. The strategy is to minimize its impact and slow its spread. The ban supports that.
Minimising the impact by slowing the spread is certainly a good policy, so why not ground all flights within the USA? That would probably be far more effective.
I suppose it will come and will be based around where the virus is the most rampant.
That was meant as an ironic idea with as much benefit as the international ban.

The mortality rates are looking like under 0.2% for younger (under 50~60) healthy adults Though for the over 80 and people with other conditions it is up to 30%.
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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by tamada » March 13, 2020, 11:00 am

^ On BBC Radio 5 Live this morning, there was mention of a real concern from Italian health professionals of a higher than expected Covid-19 morbidity rate in the 35-45 year old demographic.

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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by pipoz4444 » March 13, 2020, 2:36 pm

Watching Boris on Sky, the view I got was that the UK appears to accept that a high percentage of people in the UK, will inevitably contract the virus, regardless of what is done.

In the case the UK, the explanation from Boris and associates, was that a Peak number of infections will come at some point in the not to distant future, but that the UK's approach was to flatten that Peak number of infections and also try to control when the Peak does comes, before they introduce /consider other measures. In the way with a flatter Peak will ease the pressure on the NHS and arguably make it more manageable for the NHS and other Prevention Authorities.

The first graph they showed was with a normal uncontrolled Pandemic Peak, indication sharp Spike at a point with a very high number of people infected over a shorter period of time.

The second graph they showed with their current approach and control measures, showed a flatter Peak (i.e less people infected at a particular point in time) but with a longer period of the Peak

I dare say the Areas under each of the two graph scenarios measures the same, which means the same total number of people in the country would have been infected (40, 50 or 60%) under each scenario, just that is it at different time periods.

So Yes, it does not mean that overall significantly less people in the country will be infected by the UK approach or measures, although this maybe the hope of the final outcome at the end of the Pandemic cycle. This being the case and the total number infected being the same or similar under each scenario, then the same/similar number of people will also die under each scenario, in the absence of a vaccine. :-k :-k

The UK spokesman or Boris indicated the Peak (based on the UK's approach) will then come towards end April or May, and I would suggest that we will not see a vaccine in the next 6 -10 weeks :-k :-k

What Boris also appeared to say, is that when the Peak comes (the highest number of people infected in the Country) then they would be looking at other control measures, in the mane, to protect the elderly most vulnerable, such as Elderly and Families staying inside their homes at the time of the Peak. \:D/ \:D/

This is the UK's approach and they supposedly have one of the better health systems in the world. We will see the outcome of this approach in the next 2 -3 months =; =;

OH and what they also said was that Italy appeared to be 4 weeks ahead of the UK in the Pandemic cycle. So I guess we will see by mid April what is the Peak (highest percentage number of people infected) in a similar standard of country, very some.

I can only assume that being one of the EU countries that the case and death numbers being recorded, are reasonably accurate. Italy currently - 15,113 Recorded Cases & 1016 Deaths, running at 6.72% DR. I only hope this is not the typical outcome. [-o< [-o<

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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by sometimewoodworker » March 13, 2020, 4:04 pm

pipoz4444 wrote:
March 13, 2020, 2:36 pm


I can only assume that being one of the EU countries that the case and death numbers being recorded, are reasonably accurate. Italy currently - 15,113 Recorded Cases & 1016 Deaths, running at 6.72% DR. I only hope this is not the typical outcome. [-o< [-o<

pipoz4444
It’s clear that the recorded cases are not the actual numbers in the U.K. so if, as I guess, Italy is using similar guidelines as the U.K. the DR is only of serious infections.

The guidelines being that if you feel that you may be infected you should not go to hospital or your doctor but stay at home for a week only if you become much worse should you call for help, probably NOT visiting you doctor or hospital and only then will you be tested.

So those who have a more mild reaction will not be tested or counted.

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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by noosard » March 13, 2020, 4:08 pm

here is a winner pollie


The news that Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has coronavirus could have significant ramifications.

Mr Dutton recently returned from the United States, where he held high level talks with his counterparts from Five Eyes nations – the US, United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand.

He then attended a Cabinet meeting at Parliament House on Tuesday where, of course, Prime Minister Scott Morrison was present.

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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by tamada » March 13, 2020, 4:23 pm

I'm going to miss PMQ's when the whole enchilada moves onto Skype.

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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by noosard » March 13, 2020, 4:25 pm

The pollies wont like skype
Not been seen and loss of travel perks

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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by neeemu » March 13, 2020, 4:26 pm

pipoz4444 wrote:
March 13, 2020, 2:36 pm
Watching Boris on Sky, the view I got was that the UK appears to accept that a high percentage of people in the UK, will inevitably contract the virus, regardless of what is done.
Maybe it's Boris's tactic for reelection? Covid19 death rates in the elderly are much higher which, in a few years, would enable him to drop the UK state pension age.

Maybe I'm being overly cynical! 8-[

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Re: US declares 30-day European travel ban.

Post by pipoz4444 » March 13, 2020, 4:32 pm

tamada wrote:
March 13, 2020, 4:23 pm
I'm going to miss PMQ's when the whole enchilada moves onto Skype.
Could this mean that Politicians are actually Human :lol: :lol: :lol:

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