Time to watch the Market for a correction

bumper
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Post by bumper » June 29, 2015, 4:51 pm

Might be time to watch the markets I have stayed away waiting for a good correction. Didn't really know what would trigger it just expected it.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/busines ... 63337.html


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Post by ronan01 » June 29, 2015, 6:12 pm

bumper wrote:Might be time to watch the markets I have stayed away waiting for a good correction. Didn't really know what would trigger it just expected it.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/busines ... 63337.html
The "greek crisis" seems to have caused a fall in markets, including Australia. Will be interesting see how this pans out.

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Post by bumper » June 29, 2015, 6:43 pm

That was a surprise to me I made my decision a year ago to back off things were getting overheated. I expected a large correction down line. I've sort of been watching the Thai news nothing like I do when I have money on the line. The way things were going I thought it would be Thailand and it may yet be. But Greece was'nt even on my mind. They can still turn things around in the next two days at the moment doesn't seem probable. I hope to get a pay day with a good exchange rate this month beyond that I don't have a clue. If the SET drops far enough I will go back in. Don't know what that number is yet though.

Some of the stocks I held before the weather may be causing a problems for. TTP and EASTW both water suppliers for Bangkok. But it seems the tap water is getting salty now. So habve to keep a close eye on that. I guess the El Nino is causing problems world wide. These were gp ood growth compnaies and paid good Dividends
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Post by bumper » June 29, 2015, 7:09 pm

That should have been TTW and EASTW actually they gained today, The SET took back some of it;s losses this afternoon still down, But, not much. I see we are about to get a new boss at BOT wonder how that is going to shake out
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Post by Sport » June 30, 2015, 9:21 am

Bumper, its looking very bad for Greeks on todays news from Oz. Or is it really that bad for Greece as a country, do you think the loans will be wiped and the rest of the EU will have to compensate for the loss. You have your finger on the pulse with these matters.

I am in no way a wizard of finances throughout the world, but many years ago I predicted the EU will fall apart, big countries and small countries competing against each other and I thought it was a Union. There are too many memories in Europe for all to be forgiven.

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Post by GT93 » June 30, 2015, 2:53 pm

My 2 cents worth - I think the Greeks had no choice. I understand modern economic theory says they are better out of the Euro and that in say 5 years time they will be much better out of the Euro with their own currency than if they tried to remain in it. Austerity just doesn't work.

The bigger issue is will other countries be pushed out of the Euro in the years ahead? There's a significant possibility that the answer is yes. The UK is looking really fortunate that the markets in effect prohibited it from entering the Euro in the first place.
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Post by ronan01 » June 30, 2015, 4:46 pm

Most reports are that Oz shares and super funds took a pounding today. Will have to see if gets worse.

I suspect most aussie workers in an industry super fund would be wondering why their "savings" are taking a pounding because greek workers decided to give themselves generous pensions and early retirement.

The nature of the global economic market I guess.

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Post by noosard » June 30, 2015, 5:26 pm

GT said
"Austerity just doesn't work."

In economics, austerity is the policy of reducing government budget deficits. Austerity policies may include spending cuts, tax increases, or a mixture of both.

So you reckon do the US thing and spend
Not repay your debts

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Post by bumper » June 30, 2015, 6:04 pm

Thanks Sport. But, I really am not on top of this. I expect things to fall for Greece for sure. My question is will if spreads into the Thai SET for one reason or another. That is the only place I have invested. So I understand more then the others.

I would concur with the others have written. Keep in mind there is money to be made in the worse of circumstances. The last time I went in they had just stopped shooting each other in Bangkok an the SET was at a low. So just had to pick good companies with good dividends that are used by everyone daily.

I tell you I would trust Jimbo to evaluate that much more then me what say YE Jimbo?
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Post by ronan01 » June 30, 2015, 6:14 pm

bumper wrote:Thanks Sport. But, I really am not on top of this. I expect things to fall for Greece for sure. My question is will if spreads into the Thai SET for one reason or another. That is the only place I have invested. So I understand more then the others.

I would concur with the others have written. Keep in mind there is money to be made in the worse of circumstances. The last time I went in they had just stopped shooting each other in Bangkok an the SET was at a low. So just had to pick good companies with good dividends that are used by everyone daily.

I tell you I would trust Jimbo to evaluate that much more then me what say YE Jimbo?
True - there is opportunity in chaos.

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Post by bumper » July 1, 2015, 11:25 am

The SET is really holding up well so far.
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Post by bumper » July 1, 2015, 11:43 am

A little insight as to what is going on with Greece.

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?shva= ... 79f5c940b1
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Post by GT93 » July 1, 2015, 4:15 pm

noosard wrote:GT said
"Austerity just doesn't work."

In economics, austerity is the policy of reducing government budget deficits. Austerity policies may include spending cuts, tax increases, or a mixture of both.

So you reckon do the US thing and spend
Not repay your debts
Krugman says the US economic performance relative to Europe's since the 2008 crisis is yet more evidence that austerity in response to the 2008 crisis was far from the best policy. I understand that the US economy is now trending well.

I wouldn't call running government budget surpluses or reducing budget deficits in good times an austerity policy. I also don't think a tax increase is necessarily an austerity policy. It depends on the context.

I think the Greek lesson is that governments will want to repay their debts but that austerity policies will prohibit that by shrinking the economy and making it impossible. Hopefully one lesson from the collapse of the Greek economy is that politicians in other countries will be more careful with government debt. That's going to be difficult with aging populations in most western economies and the elderly being keen voters.
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Post by noosard » July 1, 2015, 5:19 pm

When you can't pay your debt and keep borrowing just to pay the repayments you are in hole and are digging it deeper
Something has to give
In this case the lenders have finally said enough
Greece should have kept their own currency but the Euro area ( zone) would not allow it
So now Euro area is left with a big bad debt followed by maybe some more
The greeks in the mean time will have a fair bit of pain coming their way

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Post by ronan01 » July 1, 2015, 5:28 pm


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Post by GT93 » July 1, 2015, 5:40 pm

I agree Greece is a basket case. The only solution was to grow the economy but their economy collapsed with the austerity policies. The shxt might have been so bad before the real picture emerged after their lies that it was by then way too late to escape bankruptcy.

I think it'll all pass without much global consequence although its a great tragedy for the Greeks. The Chinese casino (stock markets) will be a far bigger global problem. If they correct, then there might be big trouble.
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Post by noosard » July 1, 2015, 6:04 pm

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industr ... s-relieved

Interesting as goes back to when the kiwi was flying and the roo or emu was hopping backwards
Kiwi got grounded as can't fly
Roo and emu cannot go backwards either

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Post by bumper » July 2, 2015, 4:31 pm

Today it would seem they are more worried about China.

https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/?shva= ... a109743626
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Post by GT93 » July 2, 2015, 4:42 pm

noosard wrote:http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industr ... s-relieved

Interesting as goes back to when the kiwi was flying and the roo or emu was hopping backwards
Kiwi got grounded as can't fly
Roo and emu cannot go backwards either
Yes, I'm feeling the piss weak Kiwi $ as I regularly send money to Thailand. It's because Chinese demand for dairy products is falling. Like Australia, we're now but a small province of China. I suspect the daily news in Australia reports things such as the iron ore and coal prices. Here's its dairy prices.
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Post by ronan01 » July 2, 2015, 4:47 pm

It seems the Oz market is returning to "normal", commentators say this is due to growing realisation that Oz exposure to greece is minimal. I suspect those most worried are the german bankers.

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