ClimateGate busts things wide open

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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby ronan01 » November 13, 2011, 8:31 am

"The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK it has but it is only 7 years of data and it isn't statisically significant" Phil Jones 07/05/05

It's now 2011, nearly 2012, so about 13 of "global cooling" (according to Jones), or at least "no warming" (to be kind).

Trenbert/Santer reckons it will take about 17 years of data to be statisically significant. Not long to wait.

As for quoting the 2000's as the hottest decade ever: the planet has been warming since the little ice age. In general terms 1890 was warmer than 1900, 1920 was warmer than 1910, etc. These increases cannot be attributed to CO2.

Saying the 2000's are the hottest decade ever is meaningless drivel.

THERE HAS BEEN NO WARMING FOR ABOUT 13 YEARS DESPITE INCREASED CO2



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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby rick » November 14, 2011, 12:36 am

The natural variability in Annual mean temperature from year to year has been pretty consistent, with the Maximum difference between consecutive years being about 0.3 degrees centigrade. With a rate of warming of about 0.1 degree centigrade per decade (depends over which time period you choose, but average of 0.07 if you use the whole of the last century) it means that an exceptionally hot year WILL be above the average for a long time (about 15 years, roughly). it is also why you cannot really work off of individual years. It is still a fact that if you were to take average temperatures by decade, the last decade is the warmest. What you can say, is that temperatures like 1998 are now normal, having been approximately reached at least twice since. But to be sure that warming is continuing, you need a long time frame as the natural variability can obscure changes for a long period. As Phil Jones said - 7 years data is not statistically significant. He didn't say that 13 years from a cherry picked date was either.

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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby ronan01 » November 14, 2011, 11:49 am

Repent ye sinners the end is nigh

Here we go again - more alarism from the eco-loon nutjobs:

World headed for irreversible climate change in five years, IEA warns
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... ate-change

I have been told this many times over the past 20 years, but it never happens. More "tipping point'" bulldust.

Climate change is inevitable.

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rick
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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby rick » November 16, 2011, 3:24 pm

Well, some other changes are happening which are presumably related to the climate. Must be the cooling :-" this from the last 10 years.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15721263

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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby ronan01 » November 16, 2011, 4:27 pm

rick wrote:Well, some other changes are happening which are presumably related to the climate. Must be the cooling :-" this from the last 10 years.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15721263


And this from the IPCC (via Richard Black of all people):

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15698183

And for the future, the draft gives even less succour to those seeking here a new mandate for urgent action on greenhouse gas emissions, declaring: "Uncertainty in the sign of projected changes in climate extremes over the coming two to three decades is relatively large because climate change signals are expected to be relatively small compared to natural climate variability".

It's also explicit in laying out that the rise in impacts we've seen from extreme weather events cannot be laid at the door of greenhouse gas emissions: "Increasing exposure of people and economic assets is the major cause of the long-term changes in economic disaster losses (high confidence).

"Long-term trends in normalized economic disaster losses cannot be reliably attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change."

I think thats long-winded IPCC speak for "we're not sure if its getting hotter or colder. Even Black expects that governments will insist on "different conclussions" in the final report because so much money is at stake.

The good news is that we will be able to notice the extreme efforts the warmists go to in order to alter the text. The next version will likely say: if it warms it is due to mankind and CO2, if it cools it is due to natural variability.

Funny - the experts at the IEA say we are doomed within 5 years because of CO2, but the experts at the IPCC say its not? Go figure

Rick - for once I think you are right - it is due to the cooling of the last 10 years :-"

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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby ronan01 » November 17, 2011, 12:03 pm

rick wrote:Well, some other changes are happening which are presumably related to the climate. Must be the cooling :-" this from the last 10 years.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15721263


I note the article is based on 10 years of data. Does not really align with climate "notion" that 30 years (?) is required for a trend?

Also, the recording of "firsts" (first cuckoo call, etc) is an age old practice - from memory George Washington / Thomas Jeffereson (or similar group) were into this - references can be found on net (i dont have time to find today - sorry). But recording first "buds", etc was very important at that time - basically agrarian society. Easy to check changes in "budding" from these records. Would be interesting to see what comes up?

I know nothing about "growing" friut n vegies, but wonder if "warmer" weather would extend the season, and colder weather shorten it? Would plants be attuned to this? If they "sense" cooling would they fruit sooner?

Points for discussion only, not for scoring points.

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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby ronan01 » November 17, 2011, 6:41 pm

With respect to the BBC Richard Black article posted above (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-15698183) it is interesting to note the following extracts from the "assassination of science" website (http://www.assassinationscience.com/climategate/):

=====================================================================================================

July 5, 2005: email 1120593115
Phil Jones sends an article and a blog entry to climate scientist John Christy:

"This quote is from an Australian at the Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne (not Neville Nicholls). It began from the attached article. What an idiot. The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled from 1998. OK, it has, but it is only 7 years of data and it isn’t statistically significant."

.................................................................................................................................

Mike Mann responds:

It is extremely disappointing to see something like this appear on the BBC. It’s particularly odd, since climate is usually Richard Black’s beat at the BBC (and he does a great job). From what I can tell, this guy (Hudson) was formerly a weather person at the Met(eorological) Office.

It seems that their “man on the ground” at the BBC (Richard Black, an environmental correspondent) has been displaced by a person with a scientific background who worked for the Met(eorological) Office for ten years.

.............................................................................................................................................

Usually, we would expect a chorus of agreement with Mann. But something has changed. Kevin Trenberth, of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research:

Well I have my own article on “where the heck is global warming?” We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. …
The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The … data published in the August … 2009 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.

The belief system of these scientists is undergoing crisis. For decades, they have predicted catastrophic, accelerated warming—but someone forgot to tell the Earth about it.

Rather than draw the obvious conclusions—that their predictions are wrong; that the models that their predictions come from are inadequate—they instead start to question the measured temperatures themselves!

October 14, 2009: email 1255532032
Mike Mann responds to Kevin Trenberth:

Thanks Kevin, yes, it’s a matter of what question one is asking. To argue that the observed global average temperatures of the past decade falsify the model projections …, as the contrarians have been fond of claiming, is clearly wrong. But that doesn’t mean we can explain exactly what’s going on.

Mann is almost right, but his logic is slightly muddled. Not being able to “explain exactly what’s going on” does invalidate their model projections, without any doubt. What it doesn’t do is “prove” any opposing view, either.

The simple fact of the matter is that the incompetence of these “scientists”—covered up with decades of manipulation and “stacking the deck” of peer review—has left us with absolutely no idea whether the Earth’s climate has been affected to any appreciable degree by mankind.

............................................................................................................................................

October 27, 2009: email 1256735067
It is appropriate that Mike Mann’s last words in the Climategate repository explain what it’s all about. To Phil Jones and Gavin Schmidt:

"As we all know, this isn’t about truth at all; it’s about plausibly deniable accusations."

====================================================================================================

It is clear from reading these email exchanges
(from start to end of http://www.assassinationscience.com/climategate/)
that Jones, Mann, et al fully understood the uncertainties of their "predictions" and were fully aware that little or no warming was expected from about 2005 onwards.

Even Richard Black see that now. Hopefully this global warming scam will die soon.

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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby ronan01 » November 23, 2011, 7:25 pm

CLIMATEGATE 2

Too good to be true!!!! \:D/ \:D/ \:D/ \:D/

http://wattsupwiththat.com/
http://joannenova.com.au/
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/james ... tegate-ii/
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/james ... -of-grief/

Cant wait to hear the excuses!!!!

The science is settled and they were all cleared by many investigations :confused: :confused: :confused:

Where are you Rick? [-( And Jack? :-&

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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby ronan01 » November 23, 2011, 8:06 pm


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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby jackspratt » November 23, 2011, 8:39 pm

Seems like you have shot your bolt, ronan - 2 x huge, capitalised, bolded headlines. :D

Lets wait for the cold hard light of day to see if these "new" emails (conveniently released just prior to the upcoming Durban conference) are as relevant as the first lot. :-k

Rather than relying on unbiased interpretations by Ray Hadley, Andrew Bolt, Ms Nova, Delingpole etc etc (where is the mad Viscount?). :shock:

Will you be able to sleep tonight? :D

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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby ronan01 » November 23, 2011, 9:24 pm

yes jack ..... lets wait. I will enjoy the coming weeks.

Mad viscount .... typical pratt utterance. :-&

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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby rick » November 26, 2011, 1:08 am

What i saw was that these are just the same emails (possibly a larger selection) that were stolen previously in 2009. Well, i suppose at least the perpetrator believes in recycling.....

Meanwhile, in the real world....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15869905 One of the warmest Autumns on record (October 2 degrees above normal, November also so far above average; that's from UK Met office).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/nature/15783321 Autumn birds delay migration by up to 1 month (a 30 year study)

Just a few more bricks in the wall of evidence.

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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby jackspratt » November 26, 2011, 8:09 am

Throwing some light on the very little heat that is Climategate 2 (sic).

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... nce-emails

As could be expected from the deniers, excerpts taken out of context, or no explanation of context, dodgy editing, etc etc.

Nothing to see here......please move along. :D

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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby ronan01 » November 26, 2011, 9:08 am

Over 4.5 Billion people could die from Global Warming-related causes by 2012

http://www.agoracosmopolitan.com/home/F ... 01291.html

No alarmism here from the eco-loon nutjobs.

A rough calculation:

Billion = 1000 x 1000000 = 1 000 000 000
4.5 billion = 4 500 000 000
Date of publication = 26 Nov. Approx weeks till 2012 = 6. Approx days= 7 x 6 = 42
Deaths per day = 4 500 000 000 / 42 = 107 142 857. Approx 107 Million per day.

Population of Earth (from memory) approx 7 Billion. 4.5 / 7 x 100 = 64%

According to the eco-loon nutjobs about 64% of the worlds population could die from global warming realated causes over the next 6 weeks.

The remaining 36% of the planets survivors will be very busy burying 107 million people per day.

Those of you who feel unlucky should probably start spending your money now - not much time left.

Those who feel lucky should probably buy shares in undertaking realted industries.

I guess the upside to this horror story is the planet will be saved because there will be substantially less CO2 exhaling greedy consumers to deplete the earths resources and contribute to the CO2 outputs that are causing this alarming warming.

The science is settled!

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ClimateGate busts things wide open

Postby BobHelm » November 26, 2011, 9:32 am

Oh deary me ronan01 you really do have a reading comprehension problem don't you...

It says Could not Will.

The same as I could win the lottery this week!!

& yes the science is settled...
A human being can last about a week without water, so anything that denies a large proportion of the population drinkable water will kill them ALL - VERY quickly...


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